Kusukela esimweni sokuthuthukiswa kwama-giants of corrugated packaging waseYurophu ukubona inkambiso yomkhakha wamabhokisi ngo-2023
Kulo nyaka, iziqhwaga zaseYurophu ezipakisha amabhokisi ziye zagcina inzuzo ephezulu naphezu kwesimo esiwohlokayo, kodwa ukuwina kwazo kungahlala isikhathi esingakanani? Sekukonke, u-2022 kuzoba unyaka onzima kuma-giants amakhulu okupakisha amabhokisi. Ngokukhuphuka kwezindleko zamandla nezindleko zabasebenzi, izinkampani eziphezulu zaseYurophu ezihlanganisa i-Schmofi Kappa Group kanye ne-Desma Group nazo zithwele kanzima ukubhekana nezintengo zephepha.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi bakwaJeffries, kusukela ngo-2020, intengo ye-containerboard egaywe kabusha, ingxenye ebalulekile yokukhiqizwa kwamaphepha okupakisha, icishe yaphindeka kabili eYurophu. Kungenjalo, izindleko zebhodi lokuqukatha elimsulwa elenziwe ngokuqondile ngamalogi kunokuba amabhokisi agaywe kabusha alandele umkhondo ofanayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abathengi abaqaphela izindleko banciphisa ukusebenzisa kwabo ku-inthanethi, okubuye kunciphise isidingo samabhokisi.
Izinsuku zenkazimulo ezake zalethwa ubhubhane olusha lomqhele, njengama-oda asebenza ngokugcwele, ukuhlinzekwa okuqinile kwamabhokisi, kanye nezintengo zesitoko ezikhuphukayo zemidondoshiya yokupakisha...konke lokhu sekuphelile. Noma kunjalo, nokho, lezi zinkampani zenza kangcono kunangaphambili. I-Smurfi Kappa isanda kubika ukwenyuka kweholo ngo-43% ngaphambi kwenzalo, izintela, ukwehla kwenani kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko kusuka ngoJanuwari kuya ekupheleni kukaSepthemba, kuyilapho imali engenayo yokusebenza ikhuphuke ngengxenye yesithathu. Lokho kusho ukuthi imali engenayo ka-2022 kanye nenzuzo yemali isivele idlule emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane, yize iyingxenye yesine yendlela eya ekupheleni kuka-2022.
Ngaleso sikhathi, uDesma, umdondoshiya wokuqala wase-UK wokufaka uthayela, ukhuphule isibikezelo saso sonyaka safinyelela ku-30 Ephreli 2023, ethi inzuzo yokusebenza elungisiwe engxenyeni yokuqala kufanele ibe okungenani i-£ 400 million, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2019. Esinye isiqhwaga sokupakisha, iMondi, sikhulise umkhawulo wayo oyisisekelo ngamaphesenti ama-3, ngaphezu kokuphinda kabili inzuzo yayo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, naphezu kwezinkinga ezingakaxazululwa ebhizinisini layo laseRussia elinameva.
Isibuyekezo sokuhweba sika-Desma sika-Okthoba sasimbalwa ngemininingwane, kodwa sikhulume “ngamavolumu aphansi kancane amabhokisi kathayela aqhathanisekayo”. Ngokunjalo, ukukhula okuqinile kwe-Smurf Kappa akuwona umphumela wokuthengisa amabhokisi amaningi - ukuthengiswa kwamabhokisi kathayela kwakuphansi ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokuqala zika-2022 futhi kwehle ngo-3% kwikota yesithathu. Ngokuphambene nalokho, lezi ziqhwaga zandisa inzuzo yamabhizinisi ngokukhuphula amanani entengo yemikhiqizo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, umthamo wokuhweba awubonakali uthuthukile. Ocingweni lomholo wale nyanga, isikhulu esiphezulu seSmurfi Kappa, uTony Smurphy, uthe: “Inani lemisebenzi ngekota yesine lifana kakhulu nesilibone ngekota yesithathu. Cosha. Yebo, ngicabanga ukuthi ezinye izimakethe ezifana ne-UK neJalimane bezilokhu ziyisicaba kulezi zinyanga ezimbili noma ezintathu ezedlule.
Lokhu kubuza umbuzo: kuzokwenzekani embonini yamabhokisi kathayela ngo-2023? Uma imakethe kanye nesidingo sabathengi sokupakishwa kukathayela siqala ukwehla, ingabe abakhiqizi bokufaka uthayela bangaqhubeka nokwenyusa amanani ukuze bathole inzuzo ephezulu? Abahlaziyi bajabulile ngesibuyekezo se-SmurfKappa uma kubhekwa ingemuva elinzima kanye nokuthunyelwa kwebhokisi elibuthaka kubikwe ekhaya. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uSmurfi Kappa ugcizelele ukuthi leli qembu "lineziqhathaniso eziqine ngokudlulele zangonyaka odlule, izinga esihlale silibheka njengelingenakugcinwa".
Nokho, abatshalizimali bayangabaza kakhulu. Amasheya eSmurfi Kappa aphansi ngo-25% kunokuphakama kwalesi sifo, kanti ekaDesmar ehle ngo-31%. Ubani oqinisile? Impumelelo ayincikile nje ekuthengisweni kwebhokisi kanye nebhodi. Abahlaziyi bakwa-Jefferies babikezela ukuthi amanani ebhodi lebhodi eligaywe kabusha azokwehla uma kunesidingo esikhulu esintekenteke, kodwa futhi agcizelele ukuthi izindleko zephepha elilahlwayo namandla nazo ziyehla, ngoba lokhu kusho nokuthi izindleko zokukhiqiza ukupakisha ziyehla.
“Okuvame ukunganakwa, ngokombono wethu, ukuthi izindleko eziphansi zingase zibe umfutho omkhulu emalini etholwayo futhi ekugcineni, kubakhiqizi bamabhokisi kathayela, inzuzo yokonga kuyoba ngezindleko zanoma yiziphi izintengo zamabhokisi aphansi ezingaba khona. Kuye kwaboniswa ngaphambili ukuthi lokhu kunamathela kakhulu endleleni eya phansi (izinyanga ezingu-3-6). Sekukonke, imimoya yemali engenayo evela emananini aphansi ixazululwa ngokwengxenye yizindleko ezivela emalini engenayo.” umhlaziyi eJeffries Say.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umbuzo wezidingo ngokwawo awuqondile ngokuphelele. Nakuba i-e-commerce kanye nokwehla komnotho kuye kwabeka izinsongo ezithile ekusebenzeni kwezinkampani ezifaka uthayela, isabelo esikhulu kunazo zonke sokuthengiswa kwalawa maqembu kuvame ukuba kwamanye amabhizinisi. E-Desma, cishe u-80% wemali engenayo ivela ezimpahleni zabathengi ezihamba ngokushesha (i-FMCG), okuyimikhiqizo ethengiswa kakhulu ezitolo ezinkulu, futhi cishe u-70% wamabhokisi ebhokisi ka-Smurfi Kappa anikezwa amakhasimende e-FMCG. Lokhu kufanele kufakazele ukuqina njengoba imakethe yokuphela ikhula, futhi i-Desma ibone ukukhula okuhle ezindaweni ezifana nokushintshwa kwepulasitiki.
Ngakho-ke yize isidingo siguquguquka, mancane amathuba okuba kwehle ngaphansi kwephuzu elithile - ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukubuya kwamakhasimende ezimboni ahlaselwe kanzima ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19. Lokhu kusekelwa yimiphumela yakamuva evela ku-MacFarlane (MACF), ephawule ukukhuphuka kwenzuzo ngo-14% ezinyangeni eziyisithupha zokuqala zika-2022 njengokululama kumakhasimende ezindiza, ezobunjiniyela kanye nezivakashi ngaphezu kokunciphisa ukwehla kokuthenga nge-inthanethi.
Abapakisha ngothayela basebenzisa lolu bhubhane ukuze bathuthukise amashidi abo okubhalansi. I-CEO ye-Smurfi Kappa u-Tony Smurphy ugcizelele ukuthi isakhiwo senhloko-dolobha yenkampani yakhe “sisesimweni esihle kunazo zonke esake sasibona” emlandweni wethu, ngesikweletu/amaholo ngaphambi kokuncishiswa kwenani izikhathi ezingaphansi kwezingu-1.4. Isikhulu esiphezulu sakwaDesmar uMyles Roberts sinanela lokho ngoSepthemba, sathi izikweletu/amaholo eqembu lakhe ngaphambi kokuncishiswa kwezindleko zehle zaba izikhathi ezingu-1.6, “okungenye yezilinganiso eziphansi kunazo zonke esike sazibona eminyakeni eminingi”.
Konke lokhu kuhlanganisa nencazelo yokuthi abanye abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe isabela ngokweqile, ikakhulukazi maqondana namaphakethe we-FTSE 100, amanani entengo angaphansi ngo-20% kunezilinganiso zokuvumelana ngezinzuzo ngaphambi kokuncishiswa kwenani. Izilinganiso zabo ziyathandeka impela, njengoba i-Desma ihweba ngesilinganiso se-P/E esiya phambili esingu-8.7 kuphela uma siqhathaniswa nesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu esingu-11.1, kanye nesilinganiso se-P/E sikaSchmurf Kappa esihamba phambili esingu-10.4 uma siqhathaniswa nesilinganiso seminyaka emihlanu esingu-12.3. Okuningi kuzoncika emandleni enkampani okuqinisekisa abatshalizimali ukuthi bangaqhubeka nokumangala ngo-2023.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-13-2022
