Ukuqhathaniswa kwemibiko yezezimali yeziqhwaga ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha lasendlini: Ingabe iphuzu le-inflection lokusebenza ngo-2023 liyeza?
Umhlahlandlela: Njengamanje, intengo ye-pulp yokhuni ingene emjikelezweni owehlayo, futhi ukwehla kwenzuzo nokwehla kokusebenza okulethwe yizindleko eziphezulu zangaphambilini kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukiswe.
I-Zhongshun Jierou izozuza iholo lokusebenza lama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8.57 ngo-2022, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-6.34%; inzuzo ephelele etholwa abaninimasheya bezinkampani ezisohlwini ilinganiselwa ezigidini ezingama-350 zamayuan, okuwukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngama-39.77%.
I-Vinda International izothola imali engenayo yokusebenza engu-HK$19.418 billion ngo-2022, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-3.97%; inzuzo yonke edalwe yinkampani engumzali engu-HK$706 wezigidi, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngama-56.91%.
Mayelana nezizathu zokwehla kokusebenza, iVinda International ithe ngaphezu komthelela walolu bhubhane ngo-2022, ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza kuzoba nomthelela omubi ekusebenzeni kwenkampani.
I-Hengan International izozuza imali engenayo engama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-22.616 ngo-2022, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka ngo-8.8%; inzuzo etholakala kubanikazi bamasheya enkampani izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.925, ukwehla konyaka ngonyaka ngama-41.2%.
ibhokisi lamakhukhi
Ngokombono wesilinganiso semali engenayo, ibhizinisi lethawula lephepha belilokhu liyibhizinisi eliwumgogodla we-Hengan International. Ngo-2022, leli bhizinisi le-Hengan International lizokwenza kahle ngempela. Ngo-2022, imali yokuthengisa yebhizinisi lethawula lephepha le-Hengan International izokhuphuka cishe ngo-24.4% iye ku-12.248 wamabhiliyoni ama-yuan, okuhlanganisa cishe u-54.16% wemali engenayo isiyonke yeqembu; bekuyi-9.842 billion yuan ngesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okulinganiselwa ku-47.34%.
Uma sibheka imibiko yaminyaka yonke yango-2022 edalulwe yizinkampani ezintathu zamaphepha, ukwehla kokusebenza kubangelwa kakhulu ukwenyuka kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza.
Idatha yokuqapha i-SunSirs ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela ngo-2022, amanani entengo e-softwood pulp kanye ne-hardwood pulp, izinto zokusetshenziswa ze-pulp yokhuni, ashintshile akhuphuka. Isilinganiso sentengo yemakethe ye-softwood pulp e-Shandong yake yenyuka yaya ku-7750 yuan/ton, futhi i-hardwood pulp yake yenyuka yaya ku-6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokwenyuka kakhulu kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa, ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezinkulu zephepha nakho kwehlile, futhi imboni isabhekene nezinselelo ezinkulu.
01. Ukukhuphuka kwentengo kunzima ukuqeda ukukhuphuka kwezinto ezingavuthiwe
Izinto ezingavuthiwe ezisetshenziswa ekukhiqizeni iphepha lethishu zihlanganisa i-pulp, izithasiselo zamakhemikhali nezinto zokupakisha. Phakathi kwazo, i-pulp yenza i-50% -70% yezindleko zokukhiqiza, futhi imboni yokukhiqiza i-pulp iyimboni eyinhloko nebaluleke kakhulu ekhuphukayo embonini yamaphepha yasendlini. Njengempahla yokusetshenziswa eyinqwaba yamazwe ngamazwe, intengo ye-pulp ithintwa kakhulu umjikelezo womnotho womhlaba, futhi ukushintshashintsha kwentengo ye-pulp kuthinta izinga lenzuzo enkulu yemikhiqizo yamaphepha yasendlini.
Kusukela ngoNovemba 2020, amanani entengo ye-pulp aqhubekile nokukhuphuka. Ekupheleni kuka-2021, intengo ye-pulp yazungeza ku-5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, kwathi ekupheleni kuka-2022, yase inyuke yafinyelela ku-7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
Ukuze ubhekane nokukhuphuka kwentengo yezindleko zempahla eluhlaza, ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2020, izinkampani zamaphepha ezindlu ezweni lonke zaqala ukunyusa amanani ngokulandelana. Kusukela mhla zingama-31 kuZibandlela wezi-2020, engxenyeni yesibili ka-2020, ukunyuka okuqoqiwe kwephepha eliqediwe sekufinyelele ku-800-1,000 yuan/ton, futhi intengo yangaphambili yefekthri ikhuphuke isuka endaweni ephansi kakhulu yamayuan/ton angu-5,500-5,700 yacishe yafinyelela cishe ku-5,500-5,700 yuan/ton. 7,000 yuan/ton. , intengo ye-Xinxiangyin ex-factory isifinyelele ku-12,500 yuan / ton.
Ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2021, izinkampani ezifana neZhongshun Cleanroom neVinda International ziqhubekile nokunyusa amanani.
ibhokisi ushokoledi
U-Zhongshun Jierou uthe encwadini yokwenyuka kwentengo ngaleso sikhathi ukuthi amanani ezinto ezibonakalayo aqhubeka nokukhuphuka, futhi izindleko zokukhiqiza zenkampani nezindleko zokusebenza ziyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. IVinda International (Beijing) iphinde yathi ngenxa yokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani ezinto ezingavuthiwe, izindleko zokukhiqiza zikhuphuke kakhulu, futhi ihlela ukulungisa amanani emikhiqizo yohlobo lweVinda kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Ephreli.
Ngemuva kwalokho, engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, uZhongshun Jierou waqala ukunyusa amanani futhi, futhi wathuthuka ngezigaba. Kusukela ngekota yesithathu ka-2022, i-Zhongshun Jierou inyuse izintengo zemikhiqizo yayo eminingi.
Kodwa-ke, ukukhuphuka kwentengo okuqhubekayo kwezinkampani zamaphepha akuzange kuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu ekusebenzeni kwenkampani. Kunalokho, ukusebenza kwenkampani kwehle ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko.
ikhekhe lebhokisi lekhekhe
Kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2022, imali engenayo ye-Zhongshun Jierou izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.824, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-9.15, nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-8.57, ngokulandelana, ngenzuzo eyinsalela yama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-906, ama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-581, kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-349 nama-gros angu-4. % futhi 3.592 billion yuan ngokulandelana. %, 31.96%, kanye nensalela yenzalo kube ngu-11.58%, 6.35%, no-4.07%, ngokulandelana.
Imali engenayo ye-Vinda International kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2022 izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-13.897, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-15.269, nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-17.345, ngenzuzo esele ye-1.578 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-631. 28.24%, kanye nensalela yenzalo ibe ngu-11.35%, 8.77%, no-3.64%, ngokulandelana.
Kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2022, imali engenayo ye-Hengan International izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-22.374, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-20.79, nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-22.616 ngokulandelana, futhi ibhizinisi lezicubu lizoba ngu-46.41%, 47.34%, kanye no-54.16% ngokulandelana; inzuzo ephelele izoba ngama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4.608 kanye nama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.29 ngokulandelanayo, ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.949; amajikijolo enzuzo ephelele abengu-42.26%, 37.38%, no-34% ngokulandelana, kanti inzuzo yenzuzo yonke ibingu-20.6%, 15.83%, no-8.62%.
Eminyakeni emithathu edlule, nakuba izinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha zasendlini ziye zaqhubeka nokunyusa amanani, kusenzima ukukhokha izindleko ezikhuphukayo, futhi ukusebenza kwenkampani kanye nenzuzo kuye kwaqhubeka nokwehla.
ibhokisi elimnandi lanyanga zonke
02. Iphuzu le-inflection lokusebenza lingase lifike maduze
Ngo-Ephreli 19, uZhongshun Jierou wakhipha umbiko wakhe wokuqala wekota ka-2023. Lesi simemezelo sibonisa ukuthi engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2023, imali engenayo yokusebenza kwenkampani yayingama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.061, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-9.35%; inzuzo ephelele edalwe kubanikazi bamasheya bezinkampani ezisohlwini yaba ngama-yuan ayizigidi ezingama-89.44, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngama-32.93%.
Ngokombono wekota yokuqala ka-2023, ukusebenza kwenkampani akukahlehli.
Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka intengo ye-pulp, kunezimpawu zethemba. Ngokusho kwedatha eqhubekayo yamandla amakhulu we-pulp, amandla amakhulu e-pulp aqhubekile nokukhuphuka esuka ku-4252 yuan/ton ngoFebhuwari 3, 2020 aze afike ku-7652 yuan/ton ngoMashi 1, 2022. Ngemva kwalokho, ashintsha kancane. , kodwa yahlala cishe ku-6700 yuan/ton. Ngomhla ziyi-12 kuZibandlela wezi-2022, amandla amakhulu e-pulp aqhubeka nokukhuphuka afinyelela phezulu ku-7452 yuan/ton, futhi aqhubeka nokwehla. Kusukela ngomhla ka-23 Ephreli 2023, amandla amakhulu e-pulp aqhubekile nokuba ngu-5208 yuan/ton, ehle ngo-30.11% ukusuka endaweni ephakeme yangaphambilini.
Uma intengo ye-pulp igcinwa kuleli zinga ngo-2023, izocishe ifane nengxenye yokuqala ka-2019.
Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2019, inani lenzuzo eliphelele le-Zhongshun Jierou lalingu-36.69%, futhi isilinganiso senzuzo yonke sasingu-8.66%; isilinganiso senzuzo eyisamba se-Vinda International sasingu-27.38%, kanti isilinganiso senzuzo yonke sasingu-4.35%; isilinganiso senzuzo eyisamba se-Hengan International sasingu-37.04%, kanti isilinganiso senzuzo yonke sasingu-17.67%. Kuleli phuzu lokubuka, uma intengo ye-pulp igcinwa cishe ku-5,208 yuan/ton ngo-2023, inani lenzalo yezinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha lasendlini kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke kakhulu, futhi ukusebenza kwazo kuzoletha ukuguqulwa.
I-CITIC Securities ibikezela ukuthi emjikelezweni ophansi wezintengo ze-pulp kusuka ku-2019 kuya ku-2020, izingcaphuno zangaphandle ze-softwood pulp/hardwood pulp zizoba phansi njenge-US$570/450/ton. Kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2020 kanye nengxenye yokuqala ka-2021, i-Vinda International'Inzuzo yonke yenzuzo izoba ngu-7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, inani lenzalo ye-Zhongshun Jierou ingu-9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% ngokulandelana, kanti izinga lenzuzo yokusebenza kwebhizinisi lezicubu ze-Hengan International lingu-7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Engxenyeni yesine ka-2022, isamba senzuzo yemaliji ye-Vinda International kanye ne-Zhongshun Jierou izoba ngu-0.4% no-3.1% ngokulandelanayo. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, umkhawulo wenzuzo yokusebenza yebhizinisi lethawula lephepha le-Hengan International uzoba -2.6%. Amabhizinisi azogxila ekubuyiseleni inzuzo, imizamo yokukhuthaza ukuthengisa kulindeleke ukuthi ilawulwe phakathi kwebanga elithile, futhi amanani entengo azinzile uma kuqhathaniswa..ibhokisi elimnandi lanyanga zonke
Uma kucatshangelwa isimo sokuncintisana (umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza wephepha lethishu ngo-2020/2021 ungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.89/2.33) kanye nesu lentengo ehamba phambili, i-CITIC Securities ibikezela ukuthi inani lenzuzo yonke yephepha lethishu elihamba phambili kulo mzuliswano wentengo ye-pulp yehle. umjikelezo kulindeleke ukuthi ubuyele ku-8% -10% %.
Njengamanje, izintengo ze-pulp zingene emjikelezweni owehlayo. Ngaphansi kwalesi sizinda, izinkampani zamaphepha zasendlini kulindeleke ukuthi zenze ukuguqulwa kokusebenza.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-15-2023
