Uthelekiso lweengxelo zemali zezigebenga ezithathu eziphambili zamaphepha: Ngaba inqaku lentsebenzo ngo-2023 liyeza?
Isikhokelo: Okwangoku, ixabiso le-pulp yeplanga lingene kumjikelo wokuhla, kwaye ukuhla kwenzuzo kunye nokwehla kwentsebenzo okuziswe yindleko ephezulu yangaphambili kulindeleke ukuba kuphuculwe.
I-Zhongshun Jierou iya kufezekisa ingeniso yokusebenza ye-8.57 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan ngo-2022, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka we-6.34%; Ingeniso yesambuku eyayanyaniswa kubaninizabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo imalunga ne-350 yezigidi zeeyuan, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-39.77%.
I-Vinda International iya kuqonda ingeniso yokusebenza ye-HK $ 19.418 yezigidigidi ngo-2022, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-3.97%; Ingeniso yesambuku eyayanyaniswa nenkampani engumzali ye-HK $706 yezigidi, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-56.91%.
Ngokumalunga nezizathu zokuhla kwentsebenzo, iVinda International yathi ukongeza kwimpembelelo yobhubhane ngo-2022, ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kweendleko zempahla ekrwada kuya kuba nefuthe elibi ekusebenzeni kwenkampani.
I-Hengan International iya kufumana ingeniso ye-22.616 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngo-2022, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-8.8%; inzuzo eyayanyaniswa nabanini bezabelo zenkampani iya kuba yi-1.925 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-41.2%.
ibhokisi yecookie
Ngokombono womlinganiselo wengeniso, ishishini letawuli yephepha belisoloko lishishini elingundoqo le-Hengan International. Ngo-2022, eli shishini le-Hengan International liyakuqhuba kakuhle. Ngo-2022, ingeniso yentengiso yeshishini letawuli yephepha le-Hengan International iya kunyuka malunga ne-24.4% ukuya kwi-12.248 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ibalwa malunga ne-54.16% yengeniso yeqela; ibiyi-9.842 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan kwangelo xesha linye kulo nyaka uphelileyo, ibalelwa kuma-47.34%.
Ukujonga kwiingxelo zonyaka ze-2022 ezivezwe ziinkampani ezintathu zephepha, ukuhla kwentsebenzo ikakhulu ngenxa yokunyuka okubukhali kweendleko zempahla ekrwada.
Idatha yokubeka iliso ye-SunSirs ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngo-2022, amaxabiso e-softwood pulp kunye ne-hardwood pulp, izinto ezikrwada zomthi womthi, ziye zaguquguquka ukuya phezulu. Umndilili wexabiso lentengiso ye-softwood pulp e-Shandong yake yanyuka yaya kutsho kwi-7750 yuan/ton, kwaye i-hardwood pulp yayikhe yanyuka yaya kuma-6700 yuan/ton.
Phantsi koxinzelelo lokunyuka kabukhali kwamaxabiso ezinto eziphathekayo, ukusebenza kweenkampani ezinkulu zephepha nako kwehlile, kwaye ishishini lisajongene nemingeni emandla.
01. Ukunyuka kwexabiso kunzima ukukhawulelana nokunyuka kwezinto ezibonakalayo
Izinto ezisetyenziswayo kwinkqubo yokuvelisa iphepha lethishu ziquka i-pulp, izongezo zekhemikhali kunye nezinto zokupakisha. Phakathi kwazo, i-pulp yenza i-50% -70% yeendleko zemveliso, kwaye imboni yokuvelisa i-pulp iyona nto iphambili kunye neyona nto ibalulekileyo kwishishini lephepha lendlu. Njengemathiriyeli ekrwada yezambuku zamazwe ngamazwe, ixabiso lepulp lichatshazelwa kakhulu ngumjikelo woqoqosho lwehlabathi, kwaye ukuguquguquka kwexabiso lepulp kuchaphazela inqanaba lengeniso yengeniso yeemveliso zephepha zasekhaya.
Ukusukela ngoNovemba ka-2020, amaxabiso e-pulp aqhubekile nokunyuka. Ekupheleni kuka-2021, ixabiso le-pulp lahlala kwi-5,500-6,000 ye-yuan / toni, kwaye ekupheleni kuka-2022, inyuke yaya kwi-7,400-7,800 yuan / toni.
Ukumelana nokunyuka kwexabiso leendleko zempahla ekrwada, kwasekuqaleni kukaDisemba ka-2020, iinkampani zamaphepha ezindlu kwilizwe liphela zaqala ukunyusa amaxabiso enye emva kwenye. Ukusukela nge-31 kaDisemba ka-2020, kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2020, ukonyuka kwephepha eligqityiweyo kufikelele kwi-800-1,000 yuan/toni, kwaye ixabiso langaphambili lefektri linyukile ukusuka kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi le-5,500-5,700 yuan/toni ukuya phantse. 7,000 yuan/toni. , ixabiso Xinxiangyin ex-factory ifikelele 12,500 yuan / ton.
Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli ka-2021, iinkampani ezifana neZhongshun Cleanroom kunye neVinda International ziqhubekile nokunyusa amaxabiso.
ibhokisi yetshokholethi
UZhongshun Jierou uthe kwileta yokwenyuka kwamaxabiso ngelo xesha ukuba amaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada aqhubeka nokunyuka, kwaye iindleko zemveliso zenkampani kunye neendleko zokusebenza ziyaqhubeka nokunyuka. I-Vinda International (Beijing) iphinde yathi ngenxa yokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso ezinto eziphathekayo, iindleko zokuvelisa ziye zanda ngokukhawuleza, kwaye iceba ukulungisa amaxabiso ezinye iimveliso ze-brand Vinda ukususela ngo-Aprili 1.
Emva koko, kwikota yokuqala ka-2022, uZhongshun Jierou waqala ukunyusa amaxabiso kwakhona, kwaye waqhubela phambili ngezigaba. Ukusukela kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, uZhongshun Jierou unyuse amaxabiso uninzi lweemveliso zayo.
Nangona kunjalo, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuqhubekayo kweenkampani zephepha akuzange kukhokelele ekunyukeni okukhulu ekusebenzeni kwenkampani. Ngokuchasene noko, ukusebenza kwenkampani kwehlile ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko.
ibhokisi yekhekhe cookie
Ukusukela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022, ingeniso ye-Zhongshun Jierou iya kuba yi-7.824 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-9.15 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-8.57 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ngokulandelelana, ngenzuzo eshiyekileyo ye-906 yezigidi zeeyuan, i-581 yezigidi zeeyuan, kunye ne-349 yezigidigidi zee-yuan ezi-3. % kunye I-3.592 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokulandelelanayo. I-%, i-31.96%, kunye ne-net interest rates yayiyi-11.58%, 6.35%, kunye ne-4.07%, ngokulandelanayo.
Ingeniso yeVinda International ukusukela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022 iya kuba yi-13.897 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-15.269 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-17.345 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye nengeniso ye-1.578 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan, i-1.34 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-631 yezigidi zeeyuan. I-28.24%, kunye ne-net interest rates yi-11.35%, 8.77%, kunye ne-3.64%, ngokulandelanayo.
Ukusukela ngo-2020 ukuya ku-2022, ingeniso ye-Hengan International iya kuba yi-22.374 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, i-20.79 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, kunye ne-22.616 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokulandelelana, kwaye ishishini lezicubu liya kuba ne-46.41%, 47.34%, kunye ne-54.16% ngokulandelanayo; inzuzo eseleyo iya kuba yi-4.608 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan kunye ne-3.29 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan ngokulandelelanayo, 1.949 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan; imida yengeniso eyi-gross ibe yi-42.26%, 37.38%, kunye ne-34% ngokulandelelanayo, kwaye i-net profit margins ibingama-20.6%, 15.83%, kunye ne-8.62%.
Kwiminyaka emithathu edlulileyo, nangona iinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha zendlu ziye zaqhubeka nokunyusa amaxabiso, kusenzima ukuhlawula iindleko ezikhulayo, kwaye ukusebenza kwenkampani kunye nenzuzo kuye kwaqhubeka ukuhla.
ibhokisi sweet ngenyanga
02. Inqaku le-inflection yokusebenza lingafika kungekudala
Ngomhla we-19 ku-Epreli, uZhongshun Jierou wakhupha ingxelo yakhe yokuqala yekota ye-2023. Isibhengezo sibonisa ukuba kwikota yokuqala ye-2023, ingeniso yokusebenza yenkampani yayiyi-2.061 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-9.35%; Ingeniso yesambuku eyabalelwa kubanini-zabelo beenkampani ezidwelisiweyo yayizizigidi ezingama-89.44 zeeyuan, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka ngama-32.93%.
Ngokwembono yekota yokuqala ka-2023, ukusebenza kwenkampani akukabuyi umva.
Nangona kunjalo, ukugweba kwixabiso lentengo ye-pulp, kukho iimpawu zethemba. Ngokwedatha eqhubekayo yamandla aphambili epulp, amandla aphambili epulp aqhubekile nokunyuka ukusuka kwi-4252 yuan/toni ngoFebruwari 3, 2020 ukuya phezulu ukuya kuma-7652 yuan/toni ngoMatshi 1, 2022. Emva koko, yahlengahlengisa kancinci. , kodwa yahlala malunga ne-6700 yuan/ton. Ngomhla we-12 kaDisemba, i-2022, amandla aphambili e-pulp aqhubekile ukunyuka ukuya kwi-7452 yuan / ton, kwaye aqhubeka ehla. Ukususela ngo-Aprili 23, i-2023, amandla amakhulu e-pulp aqhubekile abe yi-5208 yuan / ton, eye yehla nge-30.11% ukusuka kwindawo ephakamileyo yangaphambili.
Ukuba ixabiso le-pulp ligcinwa kweli nqanaba ngo-2023, liya kuba lifana nesiqingatha sokuqala se-2019.
Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2019, izinga lenzuzo enkulu ye-Zhongshun Jierou yayiyi-36.69%, kwaye i-net profit rate yi-8.66%; ingeniso ye-gross ye-Vinda International yayiyi-27.38%, kwaye i-net profit rate ibe yi-4.35%; ingeniso ye-gross ye-Hengan International ibe yi-37.04%, kwaye i-net profit rate yi-17.67%. Ngokwale mbono, ukuba ixabiso lepulp ligcinwe malunga ne-5,208 yuan/toni ngo-2023, umyinge wenzala weenkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zephepha lendlu kulindeleke ukuba unyuke kakhulu, kwaye ukusebenza kwazo kuya kuzisa ukuguqulwa.
I-CITIC Securities iqikelela ukuba kumjikelezo ophantsi wamaxabiso e-pulp ukusuka kwi-2019 ukuya kwi-2020, iikowuteshini zangaphandle ze-softwood pulp / i-hardwood pulp ziya kuba ngaphantsi njenge-US $ 570/450 / ton. Ukusuka ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2020 nakwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2021, iVinda International'Inzuzo yenzuzo eseleyo iya kuba yi-7.1%, i-11.4%, i-10.6%, i-interest rate ye-Zhongshun Jierou yi-9.1%, i-11.6%, i-9.6% ngokulandelanayo, kunye nesantya sokusebenza kwe-Hengan International tissue business yi-7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Kwikota yesine ye-2022, inzuzo yengeniso ye-Vinda International kunye neZhongshun Jierou iya kuba yi-0.4% kunye ne-3.1% ngokulandelanayo. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022, umda wenzuzo yokusebenza kwishishini lephepha le-Hengan International liya kuba yi-2.6%. Amashishini aya kugxila ekubuyiseleni inzuzo, iinzame zokukhuthaza intengiso kulindeleke ukuba zilawulwe kuluhlu oluthile, kwaye amaxabiso e-terminal azinzile..ibhokisi sweet ngenyanga
Ukuthathela ingqalelo indawo ekhuphisanayo (umthamo omtsha wemveliso yephepha lethishu ngo-2020/2021 yi-1.89/2.33 yezigidi zeetoni) kunye nesicwangciso sexabiso eliphambili, i-CITIC Securities iqikelela ukuba ireyithi yenzuzo yentsalela yephepha lethishu elikhokelayo kulo mjikelo wexabiso lepulp liphantsi. Umjikelo kulindeleke ukuba ubuyele kwi-8% -10% %.
Okwangoku, amaxabiso e-pulp angene kumjikelo wokuhla. Ngaphantsi kwale mvelaphi, iinkampani zamaphepha zasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba zingenise ukuguqulwa komsebenzi.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-15-2023
