Papiso ea litlaleho tsa lichelete tsa linatla tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri ea lapeng: Na ntlha ea ts'ebetso ea 2023 e tla tla?
Tataiso: Hajoale, theko ea makhasi a patsi e kene mocheng oa ho theoha, 'me phokotso ea phaello le phokotseho ea ts'ebetso e tlisoang ke litšenyehelo tse phahameng tse fetileng li lebelletsoe ho ntlafatsoa.
Zhongshun Jierou e tla fumana chelete ea ts'ebetso ea li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 8.57 ka 2022, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 6.34%; Phaello e hlahisoang ke beng ba likhamphani tse thathamisitsoeng e ka ba li-yuan tse limilione tse 350, e leng phokotseho ea selemo le selemo ea 39.77%.
Vinda International e tla hlokomela chelete ea ts'ebetso ea HK $ 19.418 bilione ka 2022, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 3.97%; phaello ea kakaretso e hlahisoang ke k'hamphani ea motsoali ea HK $706 milione, phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 56.91%.
Mabapi le mabaka a ho fokotseha ha ts'ebetso, Vinda International e boletse hore ntle le phello ea seoa sena ka 2022, ho phahama ho tsoelang pele ha litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala ho tla ba le phello e mpe mosebetsing oa k'hamphani.
Hengan International e tla fumana chelete ea li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 22.616 ka 2022, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 8.8%; phaello e hlahisoang ke beng ba khamphani e tla ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 1.925, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 41.2%.
lebokose la kuku
Ho latela pono ea karo-karolelano ea chelete, khoebo ea lithaole tsa pampiri esale e le khoebo ea mantlha ea Hengan International. Ka 2022, khoebo ena ea Hengan International e tla sebetsa hantle. Ka 2022, chelete ea thekiso ea khoebo ea lithaole ea pampiri ea Hengan International e tla eketseha ka 24.4% ho isa ho li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 12.248, e leng karolo ea 54.16% ea chelete eohle ea sehlopha; e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 9.842 ka nako e tšoanang selemong se fetileng, e leng karolo ea 47,34%.
Ho latela litlaleho tsa selemo sa 2022 tse senotsoeng ke lik'hamphani tse tharo tsa pampiri, ho fokotseha ha ts'ebetso ho bakoa haholo ke ho phahama ho hoholo ha litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala.
Lintlha tsa tlhahlobo ea SunSirs li bonts'a hore ho tloha ka 2022, litheko tsa makhasi a softwood le makhasi a hardwood, lisebelisoa tse tala bakeng sa makhasi a patsi, li fetohile ho ea holimo. Theko e tloaelehileng ea 'maraka ea softwood pulp e Shandong e kile ea nyolohela ho 7750 yuan/ton,' me makhasi a hardwood a kile a nyolohela ho 6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Tlas'a khatello ea litheko tse ntseng li phahama haholo, ts'ebetso ea lik'hamphani tse kholo tsa pampiri le eona e theohile, 'me indasteri e ntse e tobane le mathata a mangata.
01. Ho phahama ha theko ho thata ho fokotsa ho phahama ha thepa e tala
Lisebelisoa tse tala tse sebelisoang tlhahisong ea pampiri ea lithane li kenyelletsa pulp, li-additives tsa lik'hemik'hale le lisebelisoa tsa ho paka. Har'a tsona, li-pulp li etsa 50% -70% ea litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso, 'me indasteri ea tlhahiso ea lihlahisoa ke indasteri e ka sehloohong le ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa ea indasteri ea pampiri ea ntlo. Joalo ka thepa e tala ea machabeng, theko ea makhasi a angoa haholo ke potoloho ea moruo oa lefats'e, 'me ho fetoha ha theko ea pulp ho ama phaello e felletseng ea lihlahisoa tsa pampiri tsa lapeng.
Ho tloha ka November 2020, litheko tsa pulp li ntse li tsoela pele ho nyoloha. Qetellong ea 2021, theko ea pulp e ile ea phahama ho 5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, mme qetellong ea 2022, e ne e nyolohetse ho 7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
E le ho sebetsana le keketseho ea theko ea litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala, ho tloha ka December 2020, lik'hamphani tsa pampiri tsa malapa naheng ka bophara li ile tsa qala ho nyolla litheko ka bonngoe. Ho tloha ka la 31 Tšitoe 2020, halofong ea bobeli ea 2020, keketseho e akaretsang ea pampiri e felileng e fihlile ho 800-1,000 yuan/ton, mme theko ea khale ea feme e nyolohile ho tloha sebakeng se tlase ho 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton ho ea ho hoo e ka bang. 7,000 li-yuan/ton. , theko ea khale ea feme ea Xinxiangyin e fihlile ho 12,500 yuan / ton.
Mathoasong a Mmesa 2021, lik'hamphani tse kang Zhongshun Cleanroom le Vinda International li ile tsa tsoela pele ho nyolla litheko.
likolete tsa chokolete
Zhongshun Jierou o boletse lengolong la keketseho ea litheko ka nako eo hore litheko tsa thepa e tala li ntse li nyoloha, mme litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea k'hamphani le litšenyehelo tsa ts'ebetso li ntse li eketseha. Vinda International (Beijing) e boetse e boletse hore ka lebaka la ho phahama ho tsoelang pele ha litheko tsa thepa e tala, litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso li eketsehile haholo, 'me e rera ho fetola litheko tsa lihlahisoa tse ling tsa mofuta oa Vinda ho tloha ka la 1 Mmesa.
Kamora moo, kotareng ea pele ea 2022, Zhongshun Jierou o ile a qala ho nyolla litheko hape, mme a hatela pele ka mekhahlelo. Ho tloha kotara ea boraro ea 2022, Zhongshun Jierou o ile a phahamisa litheko tsa boholo ba lihlahisoa tsa eona.
Leha ho le joalo, keketseho e tsoelang pele ea theko ea lik'hamphani tsa pampiri ha ea ka ea lebisa keketsehong e kholo ts'ebetsong ea k'hamphani. Ho fapana le hoo, ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani e ile ea theoha ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse ntseng li phahama.
kuku ea lebokose la kuku
Ho tloha 2020 ho isa 2022, lekhetho la Zhongshun Jierou e tla ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 7.824, li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 9.15, le li-yuan tse libilione tse 8.57 ka ho latellana, ka phaello e felletseng ea li-yuan tse limilione tse 906, li-yuan tse limilione tse 581, le li-yuan tse limilione tse 349 tsa gros tse 4. % le 3.592 li-yuan tse limilione tse likete ka ho latellana. %, 31.96%, le phaello ea chelete e ngata e ne e le 11.58%, 6.35%, le 4.07%, ka ho latellana.
Lekeno la Vinda International ho tloha 2020 ho isa 2022 e tla ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 13.897, li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 15.269, le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 17.345, ka phaello e felletseng ea li-yuan tse libilione tse 1.578, li-yuan tse libilione tse 1.34 le li-yuan tse limilione tse 631. 28.24%, 'me phaello ea phaello e ne e le 11.35%, 8.77%, le 3.64%, ka ho latellana.
Ho tloha 2020 ho isa 2022, chelete ea Hengan International e tla ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 22.374, li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 20.79 le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 22.616 ka ho latellana, 'me khoebo ea lithane e tla ba 46.41%, 47.34%, le 54.16% ka ho latellana; phaello ea chelete e tla ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 4.608 le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 3.29 ka ho latellana, li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 1.949; phaello ea kakaretso e ne e le 42.26%, 37.38%, le 34% ka ho latellana, 'me phaello ea marang-rang e ne e le 20.6%, 15.83%, le 8.62%.
Lilemong tse tharo tse fetileng, le hoja lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri tsa malapa li 'nile tsa tsoela pele ho phahamisa theko, ho ntse ho le thata ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tse ntseng li phahama,' me ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani le phaello li ntse li tsoela pele ho theoha.
lebokose la khoeli le khoeli le monate
02. The inflection point of performance e ka tla haufinyane
Ka la 19 Mmesa, Zhongshun Jierou o ile a lokolla tlaleho ea eona ea pele ea kotara bakeng sa 2023. Phatlalatso e bontša hore karolong ea pele ea 2023, chelete ea ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 2.061, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 9.35%; phaello ea letlooa e hlahisitsoeng ke beng ba likhamphani tse thathamisitsoeng e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse 89.44, e leng phokotseho ea selemo le selemo ea 32.93%.
Ho latela pono ea kotara ea pele ea 2023, ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani ha e so fetohe.
Leha ho le joalo, ho latela mokhoa oa theko ea pulp, ho na le matšoao a tšepo. Ho ea ka lintlha tse tsoelang pele tsa matla a maholo a pulp, matla a maholo a pulp a ile a tsoela pele ho nyoloha ho tloha ho 4252 yuan/ton ka la 3 Hlakola 2020 ho ea holimo ho 7652 yuan/ton ka la 1 Hlakubele 2022. Kamora moo, e ile ea fetoha hanyane. , empa e ile ea lula e le hoo e ka bang 6700 yuan/ton. Ka la 12 Tšitoe 2022, matla a maholo a pulp a ile a tsoela pele ho nyolohela holimo ho 7452 yuan/ton, mme a tsoela pele ho theoha. Ho tloha ka la 23 Mmesa, 2023, matla a maholo a pulp a ile a tsoela pele ho ba 5208 yuan/ton, e theohileng ka 30.11% ho tloha sebakeng se phahameng se fetileng.
Haeba theko ea pulp e bolokiloe boemong bona ka 2023, e tla batla e tšoana le halofo ea pele ea 2019.
Halofo ea pele ea 2019, sekhahla sa phaello e felletseng ea Zhongshun Jierou e ne e le 36.69%, mme sekhahla sa phaello e ne e le 8.66%; phaello ea kakaretso ea Vinda International e ne e le 27.38%, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e ne e le 4.35%; phaello ea kakaretso ea Hengan International e ne e le 37.04%, 'me sekhahla sa phaello e ne e le 17.67%. Ho latela pono ena, haeba theko ea pulp e ka bolokoa ho li-yuan/tons tse ka bang 5,208 ka 2023, sekgahla sa tsoala sa lik'hamphani tse tharo tse kholo tsa pampiri tsa malapa se lebelletsoe ho eketseha haholo, 'me ts'ebetso ea tsona le eona e tla tlisa phetoho.
CITIC Securities e bolela esale pele hore potolohong e tlase ea litheko tsa pulp ho tloha 2019 ho isa 2020, mantsoe a qotsitsoeng kantle a softwood pulp / hardwood pulp e tla ba tlase joalo ka US$570/450/ton. Ho tloha 2019 ho isa 2020 le halofo ea pele ea 2021, Vinda International'Chelete ea phaello e tla ba 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, sekhahla sa tsoala sa Zhongshun Jierou ke 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% ka ho latellana, 'me sekhahla sa phaello ea khoebo ea Hengan International ke 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Karolong ea bone ea 2022, phaello ea marang-rang ea Vinda International le Zhongshun Jierou e tla ba 0.4% le 3.1% ka ho latellana. Karolong ea pele ea 2022, phaello ea phaello ea ts'ebetso ea khoebo ea pampiri ea pampiri ea Hengan International e tla ba -2.6%. Likhoebo li tla shebana le ho khutlisa phaello, boiteko ba ho khothaletsa thekiso bo lebelletsoe ho laoloa ka har'a mefuta e itseng, 'me litheko li batla li tsitsitse..lebokose la khoeli le khoeli le monate
Ha ho nahanoa ka maemo a tlholisano (matla a macha a tlhahiso ea pampiri ea lithane ka 2020/2021 ke lithane tse limilione tse 1.89/2.33) le leano le etelletseng pele la litheko, CITIC Securities e bolela esale pele hore sekhahla sa phaello ea pampiri e etellang pele ea pampiri papaling ena ea theko ea pulp e theohile. potoloho e lebelletsoe ho hlaphoheloa ho 8% -10% %.
Hajoale, litheko tsa pulp li se li theohile. Tlas'a maemo ana, lik'hamphani tsa pampiri tsa malapa li lebelletsoe ho tlisa phetoho ea ts'ebetso.
Nako ea poso: May-15-2023
