Isbarbardhigga warbixinnada maaliyadeed ee saddexda waaweyn ee xaashida guryaha: Meesha isbeddelka ee waxqabadka 2023 ma soo socdaa?
Hagaha: Waqtigan xaadirka ah, qiimaha saxarka alwaaxdu wuxuu galay wareeg hoose, hoos u dhaca faa'iidada iyo hoos u dhaca waxqabadka ee ay keentay kharashkii hore ee hore ayaa la filayaa in la hagaajiyo.
Zhongshun Jierou waxa uu gaadhi doonaa dakhli hawlgal oo dhan 8.57 bilyan yuan sanadka 2022, hoos u dhac sanadeed ah 6.34%; faa'iidada saafiga ah ee loo aanaynayo saamilayda shirkadaha liiska ku jira waxay ku saabsan tahay 350 milyan yuan, hoos u dhac sannad kasta ah 39.77%.
Vinda International waxay xaqiijin doontaa dakhliga hawlgalka ee HK$ 19.418 sanadka 2022, korodhka sanadlaha ah ee 3.97%; faa'iidada saafiga ah ee loo aanaynayo shirkadda waalidka ee HK$706 milyan, hoos u dhac sannadle ah 56.91%.
Marka laga hadlayo sababaha hoos u dhaca waxqabadka, Vinda International ayaa sheegtay in marka laga soo tago saameynta cudurka faafa ee 2022, kor u kaca joogtada ah ee kharashyada alaabta ceeriin ay saameyn xun ku yeelan doonto waxqabadka shirkadda.
Hengan International waxay gaari doontaa dakhli dhan 22.616 bilyan yuan sanadka 2022, koror sanadle ah oo ah 8.8%; faa'iidada loo aanayn karo dadka haysta saamiyada shirkadu waxay noqon doontaa 1.925 bilyan yuan, hoos u dhac sanadle ah oo ah 41.2%.
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Marka loo eego saamiga dakhliga, ganacsiga tuwaalka waraaqaha ayaa had iyo jeer ahaa ganacsiga asaasiga ah ee Hengan International. Sannadka 2022, ganacsigan Hengan International ayaa runtii si fiican u shaqayn doona. 2022, dakhliga iibka ee ganacsiga tuwaalka waraaqaha ee Hengan International wuxuu kordhin doonaa qiyaastii 24.4% ilaa 12.248 bilyan yuan, taasoo ka dhigan qiyaastii 54.16% dakhliga guud ee kooxda; waxay ahayd 9.842 bilyan yuan isla muddadaas sannadkii hore, taasoo ka dhigan 47.34%.
Marka la eego warbixinnada sannadlaha ah ee 2022 ee ay shaaciyeen saddexda shirkadood ee waraaqaha ah, hoos u dhaca waxqabadka ayaa inta badan sabab u ah kor u kaca qiimaha alaabta ceeriin.
Xogta la socodka SunSirs waxay muujineysaa in tan iyo 2022, qiimaha barta ee saxarka alwaaxa softwood iyo saxarka alwaax adag, alaabta ceeriin ee saxarka alwaax, ay kor u kaceen. Celceliska qiimaha suuqa ee saxarka softwood ee Shandong ayaa mar kor u kacay ilaa 7750 yuan/ton, iyo saxarka alwaaxdu mar kor u kacay 6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Marka la eego cadaadiska qiimaha alaabta ceeriin ee aadka u kordhaya, waxqabadka shirkadaha waaweyn ee waraaqaha ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhacay, warshaduhuna waxay weli wajahayaan caqabado la taaban karo.
01. Kor u kaca qiimaha way adag tahay in la dhimo kor u kaca alaabta ceeriin
Walxaha ceeriin ee loo isticmaalo habka wax soo saarka ee waraaqaha nudaha waxaa ka mid ah saxarka, kiimikooyinka lagu daro iyo alaabta baakadaha. Waxaa ka mid ah, saxarka waxay ka dhigan tahay 50% -70% kharashka wax soo saarka, iyo warshadaha wax soo saarka saxarka ayaa ah warshadaha ugu muhiimsan uguna muhiimsan warshadaha waraaqaha guriga. Sida alaabta ceeriin ee bulk ee caalamiga ah, qiimaha saxarka waxaa si weyn u saameeya wareegga dhaqaalaha adduunka, iyo isbeddelka qiimaha saxarka ayaa saameeya heerka faa'iidada guud ee alaabta waraaqaha guriga.
Ilaa Noofambar 2020, sicirka saxarka ayaa sii waday inuu kordho. Dhammaadkii 2021, qiimaha saxarka ayaa dul istaagay 5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, iyo dhamaadkii 2022, waxa uu kor ugu kacay 7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
Si loola tacaalo korodhka qiimaha alaabta ceeriin, horraantii Diisambar 2020, shirkadaha xaashida guryaha ee dalka oo dhan waxay bilaabeen inay kor u qaadaan qiimaha midba midka kale. Laga bilaabo Diseembar 31, 2020, qeybta labaad ee 2020, kororka isugeynta warqadaha la dhammeeyay wuxuu gaaray 800-1,000 yuan/ton, qiimihii warshaddii horena wuxuu ka kacay meesha ugu hooseysa ee 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton ilaa ku dhawaad 7,000 yuan/ton. , Xinxiangyin qiimihii warshadii hore ayaa gaadhay 12,500 yuan / ton.
Bilowgii Abriil 2021, shirkadaha sida Zhongshun Cleanroom iyo Vinda International waxay sii wadeen inay kor u qaadaan qiimaha.
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Zhongshun Jierou wuxuu ku sheegay warqadda qiimaha korodhka wakhtigaas in qiimaha alaabta ceeriin uu sii waday kor u kaca, iyo kharashka wax soo saarka ee shirkadda iyo kharashka hawlgalka ayaa sii waday inuu kordho. Vinda International (Beijing) ayaa sidoo kale sheegtay in kororka joogtada ah ee qiimaha alaabta ceeriin awgeed, uu qarashka wax soo saarku si aad ah u kordhay, ayna qorsheyneyso in ay wax ka beddesho qiimaha qaar ka mid ah alaabada summada Vinda laga bilaabo 1-da Abriil.
Ka dib, rubuci hore ee 2022, Zhongshun Jierou wuxuu bilaabay inuu mar kale kor u qaado qiimaha, wuxuuna horumaray heerar. Ilaa rubuci saddexaad ee 2022, Zhongshun Jierou waxa uu kor u qaaday qiimaha badi alaabteeda.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, kor u kaca qiimaha joogtada ah ee shirkadaha warqaduhu ma keenin koror la taaban karo oo ku yimaada waxqabadka shirkadda. Taas beddelkeeda, waxqabadka shirkadu hoos ayuu u dhacay sababtoo ah qiimaha kor u kaca.
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Laga bilaabo 2020 ilaa 2022, dakhliga Zhongshun Jierou wuxuu noqon doonaa 7.824 bilyan yuan, 9.15 bilyan yuan, iyo 8.57 bilyan yuan, siday u kala horreeyaan, iyada oo faa'iidada saafiga ah ee 906 milyan yuan, 581 milyan yuan, iyo 349 milyan yuan, iyo faa'iido guud 4.3 % iyo 3.592 bilyan yuan siday u kala horreeyaan. %, 31.96%, iyo heerka dulsaarka saafiga ah ayaa ahaa 11.58%, 6.35%, iyo 4.07%, siday u kala horreeyaan.
Dakhliga Vinda International ee 2020 ilaa 2022 wuxuu noqon doonaa 13.897 bilyan yuan, 15.269 bilyan yuan, iyo 17.345 bilyan yuan, iyada oo faa'iidada saafiga ah ay tahay 1.578 bilyan yuan, 1.34 bilyan yuan, iyo 631 milyan yuan. 28.24%, iyo heerka dulsaarka saafiga ahi waxay ahaayeen 11.35%, 8.77%, iyo 3.64%, siday u kala horreeyaan.
Laga bilaabo 2020 ilaa 2022, Hengan International dakhligeedu wuxuu noqonayaa 22.374 bilyan yuan, 20.79 bilyan yuan, iyo 22.616 bilyan yuan siday u kala horreeyaan, ganacsiga unuggu wuxuu xisaabin doonaa 46.41%, 47.34%, iyo 54.16% siday u kala horreeyaan; faa'iidada saafiga ah waxay noqon doontaa 4.608 bilyan yuan iyo 3.29 bilyan yuan siday u kala horreeyaan, 1.949 bilyan yuan; dakhliga guud wuxuu ahaa 42.26%, 37.38%, iyo 34% siday u kala horreeyaan, iyo 20.6%, 15.83%, iyo 8.62%.
Saddexdii sano ee la soo dhaafay, inkasta oo saddexda shirkadood ee waaweyn ee xaashida guryaha ay sii wadeen inay kor u qaadaan qiimaha, haddana way adag tahay in la dhimo kharashaadka kor u kacaya, waxqabadka iyo faa'iidada shirkadu waxay sii waday inay hoos u dhacdo.
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02. Barta is-rog-rogista ee waxqabadka ayaa laga yaabaa inay dhakhso u timaado
19-kii Abriil, Zhongshun Jierou ayaa soo saartay warbixinteedii ugu horreysay ee saddex biloodlaha ah ee 2023. Ku dhawaaqista ayaa muujinaysa in rubuci hore ee 2023, dakhliga shirkaddu uu ahaa 2.061 bilyan yuan, korodhka sannad kasta 9.35%; Faa'iidada saafiga ah ee loo aanaynayo saamilayda shirkadaha liiska ku jira waxay ahayd 89.44 milyan yuan, hoos u dhac sannad kasta ah 32.93%.
Marka loo eego rubuca hore ee 2023, wax-qabadka shirkadu ma beddelin.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, marka laga eego isbeddelka qiimaha saxarka, waxaa jira calaamado rajo ah. Marka loo eego xogta joogtada ah ee xoogga ugu weyn ee saxarka, xoogga ugu weyn ee saxarka ayaa sii waday inuu ka kaco 4252 yuan/ton bishii Febraayo 3, 2020 ilaa 7652 yuan/ton bishii Maarso 1, 2022. Intaa ka dib, wax yar ayay hagaajisay. , laakiin wuxuu ku haray ku dhawaad 6700 yuan/ton. Diseembar 12, 2022, xoogga ugu weyn ee saxarka ayaa sii waday inuu kordho 7452 yuan/ton, ka dibna wuxuu sii waday inuu hoos u dhaco. Laga bilaabo Abriil 23, 2023, xoogga ugu weyn ee saxarka ayaa sii waday inuu noqdo 5208 yuan/ton, kaasoo hoos uga dhacay 30.11% halkii sare ee hore.
Haddii qiimaha saxarka lagu sii hayo heerkan 2023, waxa ay la mid noqon doontaa qaybta hore ee 2019.
Qaybtii hore ee 2019, heerka faa'iidada guud ee Zhongshun Jierou wuxuu ahaa 36.69%, heerka faa'iidada saafiga ahna wuxuu ahaa 8.66%; dakhliga guud ee Vinda International wuxuu ahaa 27.38%, iyo heerka faa'iidada saafiga ah wuxuu ahaa 4.35%; wadarta guud ee faa'iidada Hengan International waxay ahayd 37.04%, heerka faa'iidada saafiga ahna waxay ahayd 17.67%. Marka laga eego aragtidan, haddii qiimaha saxarka lagu hayo ku dhawaad 5,208 yuan/ton sanadka 2023, heerka dulsaarka saafiga ah ee saddexda shirkadood ee xaashida guryaha ah ayaa la filayaa inuu si weyn u kordho, wax qabadkoodu wuxuu sidoo kale keeni doonaa dib u dhac.
CITIC Securities waxay saadaalisay in wareegga hoose ee qiimaha saxarka laga bilaabo 2019 ilaa 2020, xigashooyinka dibadda ee saxarka alwaax/hardwood ay ahaan doonaan mid hooseeya ilaa US$570/450/ton. Laga bilaabo 2019 ilaa 2020 iyo qaybta hore ee 2021, Vinda International'Margin faa'iidada saafiga ah waxay noqon doontaa 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, dulsaarka saafiga ah ee Zhongshun Jierou waa 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% siday u kala horreeyaan, iyo heerka faa'iidada hawlgalka ee ganacsiga unugyada Hengan International waa 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Rubuca afraad ee 2022, faa'iidada saafiga ah ee Vinda International iyo Zhongshun Jierou waxay noqon doontaa 0.4% iyo 3.1% siday u kala horreeyaan. Qaybta hore ee 2022, faa'iidada hawlgalka ee ganacsiga tuwaalka waraaqaha ee Hengan International wuxuu noqon doonaa -2.6%. Shirkaduhu waxay diiradda saari doonaan soo celinta faa'iidada, dadaalka kor u qaadida iibka ayaa la filayaa in lagu xakameeyo xad gaar ah, iyo qiimaha terminalku waa mid deggan.sanduuqa macaan ee bilaha ah
Iyadoo la tixgelinayo muuqaalka tartanka (awoodda wax soo saarka cusub ee warqadaha unugga sanadka 2020/2021 waa 1.89/2.33 milyan oo tan) iyo istaraatiijiyadda qiimaha hormuudka ah, CITIC Securities waxay saadaalisay in heerka faa'iidada saafiga ah ee warqadda unugga ee hormuudka ka ah wareeggan qiimaha saxarka uu hoos u dhacay. wareegga ayaa la filayaa inuu soo kabsado ilaa 8% -10% %.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, qiimaha saxarada waxay galeen wareeg hoose. Asalkii hore, shirkadaha xaashida guryaha ayaa laga filayaa inay keenaan rogaal celin.
Waqtiga boostada: Meey-15-2023
