Mitengo yemapepa yakatengeswa uye yakawedzera, uye kubudirira kweindasitiri yemapepa kwakaunza inflection point?

Mitengo yemapepa yakatengeswa uye yakawedzera, uye kubudirira kweindasitiri yemapepa kwakaunza inflection point?

Munguva pfupi yapfuura, kwave kune dzimwe shanduko muchikamu chekugadzira mapepa. A-share Tsingshan Paper (600103.SH), Yueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), Huatai Stock (600308.SH), uye Hong Kong-yakanyorwa Chenming Paper (01812.HK) ese ane Imwe dhigirii yekuwedzera inogona kunge ine hukama nehukama. kusvika pakuwedzera kwemutengo wepepa. candy snack box

Makambani emapepa "anowedzera mitengo" kana "inshurensi mitengo"

Kubva pakutanga kwegore rino, makadhi machena anga ari mumamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa pakati pemhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzepepa. Zvinoenderana neruzhinji data, mutengo wepakati pamusika wepakati we250g kusvika 400g chena kadhibhodhi wakadzikira kubva pa5110 yuan/tani mukutanga kwegore kuenda kune yazvino 4110 yuan/ton, uye ichiri kudzika kutsva mumakore mashanu apfuura.

Takatarisana nemutengo wemakadhibhodhi machena uchidonha nekusingaperi, kutanga kubva munaChikunguru 3, mamwe makambani madiki uye epakati chena makadhibhodi muGuangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi nemamwe matunhu akatungamira mukuburitsa mabhii ekuwedzera mutengo. Musi waChikunguru 6, iyo inotungamira chena kadhibhodhi indasitiri Enterprises akadai seBohui Pepa uye Zuva Pepa zvakare akatevera uye akapa mabhii ekugadzirisa mutengo, achironga kuwedzera mutengo wazvino wezvose zvigadzirwa zvemakadhibhodi ne200 yuan/ton. costco candy mabhokisi

Chikonzero chekuwedzera kwemutengo chinogona kunge chiri kufamba kusingabatsiri. Zvinonzi mutengo uye mutengo wemapepa emakadhi machena wakaratidza mamiriro akakomba, uye makambani emapepa anogona kungozadzisa chinangwa chekumisa kuderera nekugadzirisa mitengo pamwe chete.

Kutaura zvazviri, pakutanga kwaFebruary gore rino, indasitiri yemapepa yakanga yave kutoronga kukwidza mitengo. Makambani anotungamira mapepa akadai seBohui Paper, Chenming Paper, uye Wanguo Paper akatungamira mukukwidza mutengo wemakadhi machena. Mushure meizvozvo, Yueyang Forestry nePepa zvakateera. Mafungu ekuwedzera kwemitengo akapararira kubva kumakambani anotungamira mapepa kuenda kumakambani madiki uye epakati emapepa, asi mhedzisiro yekutevera yakanga isina kunaka, uye mhedzisiro yekumhara yaive pakati. Chikonzero chikuru ndechekuti kudiwa kwemvura kuzasi hakuna kusimba, uye makambani emapepa haana sarudzo kunze kwekukwidza mitengo. Muchokwadi, ndeyekudzivirira mitengo uye kudzivirira kumwe kuderera kwemutengo. candy uye snack box

Indasitiri yemapepa inoshandira maindasitiri mazhinji epasi, anosanganisira kushandiswa, kugadzirwa kwemaindasitiri, nezvimwewo. Inotaridzirwa sebarometer yehupfumi, uye inowanzoonekwa sechiratidzo chekusimba kwehupfumi. Maitiro asina kusimba ematengo emapepa gore rino anoratidzawo kune imwe nhanho kuti pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu epanguva ino macro, maitiro ekugadzirisa hupfumi angave akaderera pane zvinotarisirwa nemusika. Japanese candy box

Pulp mitengo pakupera kwemutengo iri pasi pekumanikidzwa

Kumusoro kweketani yeindasitiri yekugadzira mapepa kunosanganisira masango, pulping, nezvimwewo, uye kudzika kunosanganisira kugadzira mapepa uye zvigadzirwa zvemapepa, izvo zvakakamurwa kuita marara, chena bhodhi bepa, chena kadhibhodhi, pepa remifananidzo, nezvimwe. Mumutengo wekugadzira mapepa, iyo Mutengo wemapepa unotora 60% kusvika 70%, uye mamwe marudzi emapepa anotosvika 85%.candy kubva kune dzimwe nyika bhokisi

Mugore rapfuura, mitengo yepulp yakaramba ichimhanya pamwero wepamusoro. Softwood pulp yakasimuka kubva pa5,950 yuan/ton pakutanga kwa2022 kusvika pa7,340 yuan/ton pakupera kwegore, kuwedzera kwe23.36%. Munguva imwecheteyo, hardwood pulp yakasimuka kubva pa5,070 yuan/ton kusvika pa6,446 yuan/ton tons, kuwedzera kwe27.14%. Mutengo wakasimba wepulp wakadzvanya purofiti yemakambani emapepa, uye kudzika kwakadzika kunosiririsa.

Kubva 2023, kugadziridzwa kwemitengo yepulp kwaunza zororo kumakambani emapepa. Zvinoenderana nedata, remangwana remapulp radzika kubva painoda kusvika zviuru zvinomwe payuan/ton pakutanga kwegore kuenda kunosvika zviuru zvishanu zveyuan/ton uye yakagadzikana. Kudonha kwakapfuura zvaitarisirwa.

Chikonzero chekudonha kwemitengo ye pulp muhafu yekutanga yegore inogona kunge iri hombe yekugadzira yemhiri kwemakungwa hardwood pulp. Pamusoro pezvo, zvinhu zvakaita sekushandisa husimbe pasi pemashure ekukwira kwemhindu mhiri kwemakungwa zvakagadzirawo zvipingaidzo zviri pachena pamitengo inokwira. Kunyangwe mamwe madhiri atora matanho kuti "asimudze mutengo", mhedzisiro yacho haisi pachena. pamwedzi japanese candy box

Mazhinji masangano haana tarisiro nezve yekutevera maitiro emitengo yepulp. Iyo Shenyin Wanguo Research Report inotenda kuti maitiro ekupa kwakasimba kwepulp uye kushayiwa kusimba kunoenderera, izvo zvakakosha zviri bearish, uye iyo yakazara rebound nzvimbo inotarisirwa kuve shoma. Zvisinei, kuderera kwekare kwakaratidza zvikuru mamiriro ezvinhu asina simba aripo iye zvino.

Izvi zvinoratidzikawo kuratidza kuti nguva yakaipisisa yeindasitiri yemapepa yapfuura, uye indasitiri inogona kuunza inflection point yebudiriro. Vanhu vari muindastiri vanowanzo tenda kuti nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kwemitengo yepulp, chinhu chikuru chinokanganisa budiriro yeindasitiri yemapepa yachinja kubva kudivi remutengo kuenda kudivi rekudiwa zvakare.  masiwiti mabhokisi kubva pasirese

Kubva pamaonero echikamu chekutanga, kuita kwemakambani mazhinji emapepa kune husimbe. Zuva Pepa, iro rine huwandu hukuru hwemari, rakawana purofiti inosvika 566 miriyoni yuan mukota yekutanga yegore rino, kuderera kwegore negore ne16.21%. Muchikamu chekutanga, purofiti yakaitwa nemubereki weShanying International neChenming Pepa yaive -341 miriyoni yuan uye -275 miriyoni yuan, kudonha kwakanyanya kwe270.67% uye 341.76% gore negore.

Muhafu yekutanga yegore, kuderera kwepamusoro-soro yepulp kwakaunza kudonha kwakanyanya mukudzvinyirirwa kwemakambani emapepa epamba. Iyo chikamu chekugadzira mapepa chinogona kuunza mbiri inokonzeresa yekuwedzera kwemutengo uye kuderera kwemutengo, uye kuita kunotarisirwa kupora. Kana iri mamiriro ekugadzirisa, ichaziviswa mushumo wegore negore wekambani yakakodzera.

Integrated marongerwo kusanganisa kukwikwidza

Kuwanikwa kwenyika yangu kwagara kuchitsamira kune dzimwe nyika, uye pulp inonyanya kutengwa kubva kuCanada, Chile, United States, Russia nedzimwe nyika. Nekuda kwehupfumi hwezviwanikwa zvekushandisa pulping, Canada yagara iri mugadziri mukuru we pulp uye imwe yeakakosha masosi ekunze anotengeswa pulp kuChina. Pulp mill inodya masango akawanda uye inokonzera kukanganisa kunharaunda. Indasitiri yemukati mepulp ine zvirambidzo zvakasimba pakusimudzira indasitiri yepulp, chikumbaridzo chakakwira, uye mitengo yekushanda yakatokwira kupfuura mamwe magiyo ekunze. candy kubva kumativi ose enyika bhokisi

Zvakakodzera kutaura kuti mumakore achangopfuura, pasi pemamiriro ekunze kwekupihwa kwepasi uye mitengo yakakwira kwenguva yakareba, hupenyu hwemakambani emapepa epamba hauna kuve nyore, makambani anotungamira akawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika kumusoro kweketani yemaindasitiri, uye kupatsanurwa kwekutanga kwekudyara masango, kupuruzira, Iwo matatu anongedzo ekugadzira mapepa akabatanidzwa kusimudzira marongerwo e "sango-pulp-pepa kubatanidzwa kwepepa" chirongwa uye kusimudzira yayo yega pulp kugovera, kuitira kuti ive nechokwadi. kugadzikana kweiyo raw material supply chain uyezve kuderedza kugadzirwa uye mari yekushandisa. bhokisi re chocolate candy

Vatambi vakati wandei muindasitiri yemapepa epamba, seChenming Pepa neZuva Pepa, vatotanga dhizaini yakakodzera. Chenming Pepa inoonekwa sekambani yemapepa yekutanga yakatanga iyo "pulp uye kubatanidza mapepa" zano. Muna 2005, Chenming Boka rakaita chirongwa chekubatanidza masango-mapepa-pepa muZhanjiang, Guangdong chakabvumidzwa neHurumende Council. Chirongwa ichi chirongwa chikuru chakakosha chenyika kusimudzira kuvakwa kwakabatana kwemasango, pulp nemapepa. Inowanikwa muLeizhou Peninsula kumucheto kwekumaodzanyemba kweChina. Iine mabhenefiti enzvimbo ari pachena maererano nemusika, zvekufambisa uye zviwanikwa. Nzvimbo yakanaka. Kubva ipapo, Chenming Pepa yakateedzera pulp uye mapepa ekubatanidza mapurojekiti muShouguang, Huanggang nedzimwe nzvimbo. Parizvino, Chenming Pepa huwandu hwekugadzira huni hwehuni hwasvika 4.3 miriyoni matani, zvichinyatsoona kuenderana kwe pulp uye bepa kugadzira kugadzirwa.

Pamusoro pezvo, Pepa reZuva riri kuvakawo rayo "pulp line" muBeihai, Guangxi, kupinza huni machipisi kuti ibudise pulp, ichiwedzera chikamu chekuzvigadzira chega uye kuderedza mitengo. Pamusoro pezvo, kambani inoshingairira kuwedzera kuvakwa kwemabhesi emasango ekunze kuti ipe vimbiso yekupihwa kweramangwana rezviwanikwa. box see's candy

Pakati pese, indasitiri yemapepa inoratidzika kunge iri kubuda muchidyiro, uye mamwe mamakisi emapepa atanga kukwira mumutengo. Kana iyo yekudzika kudzoreredza maitiro ikadarika zvinotarisirwa, iyo indasitiri yemapepa inogona kuwana inflection point mukubudirira kwayo.

Mumakore mashoma apfuura, mamwe madiki uye epakati nepakati uye echinyakare kugadzira mapepa akabviswa mushure mekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza uye kuderedza kugona. Mune ramangwana, nemaitiro eiyo yakasanganiswa dhizaini, chikamu chemusika chemakambani anotungamira mapepa anotarisirwa kuramba achiwedzera, uye makambani ane hukama anogona kuunza kudzoreredza kaviri kwepurofiti uye kukosha.