Kuenzaniswa kwemishumo yemari yeaya matatu makuru epamba mapepa hofori: Ndiyo inflection point yekuita muna 2023 iri kuuya?
Nhungamiro: Parizvino, mutengo wehuni pulp wakapinda mukuderera, uye kuderera kwepurofiti uye kuderera kwekuita kwakaunzwa nemutengo wepamusoro wekare unotarisirwa kuvandudzwa.
Zhongshun Jierou ichawana mari yekushandisa ye8.57 bhiriyoni yuan muna 2022, gore negore kuderera kwe6.34%; iyo mambure emubairo inopiwa kune vanogova vemakambani akanyorwa ingangoita 350 miriyoni yuan, gore negore kuderera kwe39.77%.
Vinda International ichawana mari yekushandisa yeHK $ 19.418 bhiriyoni muna 2022, gore negore kuwedzera kwe3.97%; net profit inokonzerwa nekambani yevabereki yeHK $706 miriyoni, gore-pa-gore kudzikira kwe56.91%.
Panyaya yezvikonzero zvekudzikira kwekuita basa, Vinda International yakati pamusoro pekukanganisa kwedenda muna 2022, kukwira kuri kuramba kuchikwira kwemitengo yezvigadzirwa kuchave nekukanganisa kushanda kwekambani.
Hengan International ichawana mari ye22.616 bhiriyoni yuan muna 2022, gore negore kuwedzera kwe8.8%; purofiti inowanikwa kune vane equity yekambani ichave 1.925 bhiriyoni yuan, gore negore kuderera kwe41.2%.
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Kubva pamaonero ehuwandu hwemari, bhizinesi remapepa tauro ragara riri iro bhizinesi rekutanga reHengan International. Muna 2022, bhizinesi iri reHengan International richaita nemazvo. Muna 2022, mari yekutengesa yebhizimusi reHengan International yemapepa tauro ichawedzera ne24.4% kusvika 12.248 bhiriyoni yuan, ichiverengera 54.16% yemari yese yeboka; yaive 9.842 bhiriyoni yuan panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura, ichiverengera 47.34%.
Tichitarisa kubva mumishumo yegore ra2022 yakaburitswa nemakambani matatu emapepa, kudzikira kwekuita kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvinhu.
SunSirs yekutarisa data inoratidza kuti kubvira 2022, mitengo yenzvimbo yesoftwood pulp uye hardwood pulp, mbishi zvinhu zvehuni pulp, yachinja ichikwira. Avhareji mutengo wemusika we softwood pulp muShandong wakambokwira kusvika pa7750 yuan/ton, uye hardwood pulp yakambokwira kusvika pa6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Nekumanikidzwa kwekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yezvinhu, kushanda kwemakambani makuru emapepa kwadzikira, uye indasitiri ichiri kutarisana nematambudziko makuru.
01. Kukwira kwemutengo kwakaoma kubvisa kukwira kwezvinhu zvakasvibiswa
Raw zvinhu zvinoshandiswa mukugadzira pepa retishu zvinosanganisira pulp, makemikari ekuwedzera uye zvekurongedza zvinhu. Pakati pavo, pulp account ye50% -70% yemutengo wekugadzira, uye indasitiri yekugadzira pulp ndiyo huru uye yakakosha indasitiri yekumusoro yeindasitiri yemapepa emba. Sehuwandu hwakawanda hwepasi rose, mutengo we pulp unokanganiswa zvakanyanya nekutenderera kwehupfumi hwenyika, uye kuderera kwemutengo we pulp kunokanganisa huwandu hwepurofiti yezvigadzirwa zvemapepa epamba.
Kubva munaNovember 2020, mitengo yepulp yakaramba ichikwira. Pakupera kwa2021, mutengo wepulp wakakwira pa5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, uye pakupera kwa2022, wakakwira kusvika pa7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
Kuitira kutarisana nekukwira kwemutengo wemitengo yezvinhu zvakabikwa, kutanga kwaZvita 2020, makambani emapepa edzimba munyika yese akatanga kukwidza mitengo imwe neimwe. Kubva muna Zvita 31, 2020, muhafu yechipiri ya2020, kuwedzera kwebepa rakapedzwa kwasvika pa800-1,000 yuan/ton, uye mutengo wekare wefekitari wakakwira kubva padanho rezasi re5,500-5,700 yuan/ton kusvika pari zvino. 7,000 yuan/ton. , Xinxiangyin ex-factory mutengo wasvika 12,500 yuan / tani.
Mukutanga kwaApril 2021, makambani akadai seZhongshun Cleanroom neVinda International akaramba achikwidza mitengo.
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Zhongshun Jierou akataura mutsamba yekuwedzera mutengo panguva iyoyo kuti mitengo yezvigadzirwa yakaramba ichikwira, uye mutengo wekugadzira wekambani uye mutengo wekushandisa wakaramba uchikwira. Vinda International (Beijing) yakataurawo kuti nekuda kwekukwira kuri kuramba kuchiita mitengo yezvinhu, mitengo yekugadzira yakakwira zvakanyanya, uye inoronga kugadzirisa mitengo yezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvemhando yeVinda kubva Kubvumbi 1.
Mushure mezvo, muchikamu chekutanga cha2022, Zhongshun Jierou akatanga kukwidza mitengo zvakare, uye akafambira mberi mumatanho. Sechikamu chechitatu chegore ra2022, Zhongshun Jierou akakwidza mitengo yezvizhinji zvezvigadzirwa zvayo.
Nekudaro, kuenderera kwemutengo kukwira kwemakambani emapepa hakuna kuunza kuwedzera kwakanyanya mukuita kwekambani. Kusiyana neizvi, kushanda kwekambani kwakadzikira nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo.
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Kubva 2020 kusvika 2022, mari yeZhongshun Jierou ichave 7.824 bhiriyoni yuan, 9.15 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 8.57 bhiriyoni yuan, zvichiteerana, netwo pundutso ye906 miriyoni yuan, 581 miriyoni yuan, uye 349 miriyoni gros 3.4 purofiti, ne1. % uye 3.592 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana. %, 31.96%, uye mambure emubereko aive 11.58%, 6.35%, uye 4.07%, zvichiteerana.
Mari yeVinda International kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2022 ichange iri 13.897 bhiriyoni yuan, 15.269 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 17.345 bhiriyoni yuan, iine pundutso yebhiriyoni 1.578 yuan, 1.34 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 631 miriyoni yuan. 28.24%, uye mambure emubereko aive 11.35%, 8.77%, uye 3.64%, zvichiteerana.
Kubva 2020 kusvika 2022, mari yeHengan International ichave 22.374 bhiriyoni yuan, 20.79 bhiriyoni yuan, uye 22.616 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana, uye bhizinesi rematishu richaita 46.41%, 47.34%, uye 54.16% zvichiteerana; purofiti ichava 4.608 bhiriyoni yuan uye 3.29 bhiriyoni yuan zvichiteerana, 1.949 bhiriyoni yuan; gross profit margins yaive 42.26%, 37.38%, uye 34% zvakateerana, uye mambure emubairo aive 20.6%, 15.83%, uye 8.62%.
Mumakore matatu apfuura, kunyange zvazvo makambani makuru matatu eimba mapepa akaramba achikwidza mitengo, zvichiri kuoma kugadzirisa mari inokwira, uye kushanda kwekambani uye kubudirira kwakaramba kuchiderera.
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02. Iyo inflection point yekuita inogona kuuya nekukurumidza
Musi waApril 19, Zhongshun Jierou yakabudisa mushumo wayo wekutanga wekota ye2023. Chiziviso chinoratidza kuti muchikamu chekutanga che2023, mari yekushanda kwekambani yaiva 2.061 bhiriyoni yuan, gore negore kuwedzera kwe9.35%; iyo purofiti yakapihwa nevanogovana vemakambani akanyorwa yaive 89.44 miriyoni yuan, gore-pa-gore kudzikira kwe32.93%.
Kubva pamaonero ekota yekutanga ya2023, kuita kwekambani hakuna kudzoreredza.
Zvisinei, tichitarisa kubva pamutengo wematengo, pane zviratidzo zvekutarisira. Zvinoenderana nedata rinoenderera resimba guru repulp, simba guru repulp rakaramba richikwira kubva pa4252 yuan/ton musi waKukadzi 3, 2020 kusvika pa7652 yuan/ton musi waKurume 1, 2022. Mushure meizvozvo, yakagadzirisa zvishoma. , asi yakaramba yakatenderedza 6700 yuan/ton. Musi waZvita 12, 2022, simba guru repulp rakaramba richikwira kusvika pa7452 yuan/ton, ndokuramba richidzikira. Kubva muna Kubvumbi 23, 2023, simba guru repulp rakaramba riri 5208 yuan/ton, iyo yakaderera ne30.11% kubva pakakwirira yapfuura.
Kana mutengo wepulp ukachengetwa padanho iri muna 2023, unenge wakangofanana nehafu yekutanga ye2019.
Muhafu yekutanga ye2019, iyo gross profit rate yeZhongshun Jierou yaive 36.69%, uye mambure purofiti yaive 8.66%; gross profit rate yeVinda International yaive 27.38%, uye mambure epurofiti yaive 4.35%; iyo gross profit rate yeHengan International yaive 37.04%, uye mambure epurofiti yaive 17.67%. Kubva pamaonero aya, kana mutengo wepulp ukachengetwa wakatenderedza 5,208 yuan/tani muna 2023, mubereko wemambure emakambani makuru matatu emakambani emapepa epamba unotarisirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya, uye kuita kwavo kuchaunza kudzoreredzwa.
CITIC Securities inofanotaura kuti mukudzika kutenderera kwemitengo ye pulp kubva 2019 kusvika 2020, makotesheni ekunze e softwood pulp/hardwood pulp achange akadzikira seUS$570/450/ton. Kubva 2019 kusvika 2020 uye hafu yekutanga ya2021, Vinda International's net profit margin ichave 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, the net interest rate yeZhongshun Jierou i9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% zvakateerana, uye purofiti yekushanda yeHengan International tissue bhizinesi i7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Muchikamu chechina cha2022, mambure emubairo eVinda International neZhongshun Jierou achange ari 0.4% uye 3.1% zvichiteerana. Muhafu yekutanga ya2022, iyo yekushanda purofiti muganho weHengan International yemapepa tauro bhizinesi ichave -2.6%. Mabhizinesi anozotarisa kudzoreredza purofiti, kuedza kwekusimudzira kutengesa kunotarisirwa kudzorwa mukati meimwe nhanho, uye mitengo yekupedzisira yakagadzikana..pamwedzi inotapira bhokisi
Tichifunga nezvemamiriro emakwikwi (itsva yekugadzirwa kwepepa retishu muna 2020/2021 ndeye 1.89 / 2.33 miriyoni matani) uye inotungamira mutengo zano, CITIC Securities inofanotaura kuti mambure epurofiti yeanotungamira matishu bepa mune ino kutenderera kwe pulp mutengo wakadzika. kutenderera kunotarisirwa kupora kusvika ku8% -10% %.
Parizvino, mitengo yepulp yapinda mukuderera. Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu aya, makambani emapepa epamba anotarisirwa kuunza shanduko yekushanda.
Nguva yekutumira: May-15-2023
