Kuyerekeza kwa malipoti azachuma a zimphona zazikuluzikulu zitatu zapanyumba: Kodi malo ogwirira ntchito mu 2023 akubwera?
Chitsogozo: Pakalipano, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa nkhuni walowa m'nyengo yotsika, ndipo kuchepa kwa phindu ndi kuchepa kwa ntchito komwe kunabwera chifukwa cha mtengo wapamwamba wapitawo kukuyembekezeka kuwongolera.
Zhongshun Jierou apeza ndalama zogwirira ntchito za yuan biliyoni 8.57 mu 2022, kutsika kwachaka ndi 6.34%; Phindu lonse lomwe amagawana nawo m'makampani omwe adatchulidwa ndi pafupifupi ma yuan 350 miliyoni, kutsika kwapachaka ndi 39.77%.
Vinda International idzapeza ndalama zogwirira ntchito za HK $ 19.418 biliyoni mu 2022, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 3.97%; phindu lonse lochokera ku kampani ya makolo ya HK $ 706 miliyoni, kutsika kwapachaka ndi 56.91%.
Pazifukwa zomwe zidapangitsa kuti magwiridwe antchito achepe, Vinda International idati kuphatikiza pazovuta za mliriwu mchaka cha 2022, kukwera kosalekeza kwamitengo yamafuta kudzakhala ndi vuto lalikulu pantchito yakampani.
Hengan International idzapindula ndalama zokwana 22.616 biliyoni za yuan mu 2022, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 8.8%; phindu la eni ake a kampaniyo lidzakhala 1.925 biliyoni ya yuan, kutsika kwa chaka ndi 41.2%.
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Pakuwona kuchuluka kwa ndalama, bizinesi ya matawulo amapepala nthawi zonse yakhala bizinesi yayikulu ku Hengan International. Mu 2022, bizinesi iyi ya Hengan International ichita bwino. Mu 2022, ndalama zogulitsa zabizinesi yapapepala ya Hengan International zidzakwera pafupifupi 24.4% mpaka 12.248 biliyoni ya yuan, zomwe zikuwerengera pafupifupi 54.16% ya ndalama zonse za gulu; inali 9.842 biliyoni ya yuan panthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, zomwe zinali 47.34%.
Kutengera malipoti apachaka a 2022 omwe adawululidwa ndi makampani atatu a mapepala, kuchepa kwa magwiridwe antchito makamaka chifukwa cha kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo yamafuta.
Zambiri zowunika za SunSirs zikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira 2022, mitengo yamitengo yofewa ndi zamkati zamatabwa olimba, zida zopangira nkhuni, zasintha kwambiri. Mtengo wamsika wamsika wa softwood zamkati ku Shandong udakwera kufika pa 7750 yuan/ton, ndipo zamkati zamatabwa zolimba zidakwera kufika pa 6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Pansi pa kukakamizidwa kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali yokwera kwambiri, ntchito zamakampani akuluakulu a mapepala zatsikanso, ndipo makampaniwa akukumanabe ndi zovuta zambiri.
01. Kukwera kwa mtengo kumakhala kovuta kuthetsa kukwera kwa zipangizo
Zida zopangira zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga mapepala a minofu zimaphatikizapo zamkati, zowonjezera zamankhwala ndi zida zonyamula. Pakati pawo, zamkati zimatengera 50% -70% ya mtengo wopangira, ndipo makampani opanga zamkati ndiye gawo lalikulu komanso lofunika kwambiri lamakampani opanga mapepala apanyumba. Monga zopangira zambiri zapadziko lonse lapansi, mtengo wazakudya umakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kayendetsedwe kazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo kusinthasintha kwamitengo yamitengo kumakhudza phindu lalikulu lazinthu zamapepala apanyumba.
Kuyambira Novembala 2020, mitengo yamafuta ikupitilira kukwera. Kumapeto kwa 2021, mtengo wa zamkati udakwera 5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, ndipo pofika kumapeto kwa 2022, udakwera mpaka 7,400-7,800 yuan/ton.
Pofuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwamitengo yamitengo, kuyambira Disembala 2020, makampani opanga mapepala apanyumba m'dziko lonselo adayamba kukweza mitengo imodzi ndi ina. Pofika pa Disembala 31, 2020, mu theka lachiwiri la 2020, kuchuluka kwa mapepala omalizidwa kwafika pa 800-1,000 yuan/tani, ndipo mtengo wakale wa fakitale wakwera kuchokera pamunsi kwambiri 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton mpaka pafupifupi. 7,000 yuan/tani. , Xinxiangyin mtengo wakale wa fakitale wafika 12,500 yuan / tani.
Kumayambiriro kwa Epulo 2021, makampani monga Zhongshun Cleanroom ndi Vinda International adapitilizabe kukweza mitengo.
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Zhongshun Jierou adanena m'kalata yokweza mitengo panthawiyo kuti mitengo yamafuta ikupitilira kukwera, ndipo ndalama zopangira kampani ndi ndalama zogwirira ntchito zikupitilira kukwera. Vinda International (Beijing) inanenanso kuti chifukwa chakukwera kosalekeza kwamitengo yazinthu zopangira, mitengo yopangira yakwera kwambiri, ndipo ikukonzekera kusintha mitengo yazinthu zina zamtundu wa Vinda kuyambira pa Epulo 1.
Pambuyo pake, kotala loyamba la 2022, Zhongshun Jierou adayambanso kukweza mitengo, ndikupita patsogolo pang'onopang'ono. Pofika kotala lachitatu la 2022, Zhongshun Jierou adakweza mitengo yazinthu zake zambiri.
Komabe, kukwera kwamitengo kosalekeza kwamakampani opanga mapepala sikunapangitse chiwonjezeko chachikulu pakuchita kwa kampaniyo. M'malo mwake, ntchito ya kampaniyo idatsika chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo.
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Kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022, ndalama za Zhongshun Jierou zidzakhala 7.824 biliyoni, 9.15 biliyoni, ndi 8.57 biliyoni, motsatana, ndi phindu la 906 miliyoni, 581 miliyoni, ndi 349 miliyoni 349 gros yuan 4. % ndi 3.592 biliyoni yuan motsatana. %, 31.96%, ndi chiwongola dzanja chonse chinali 11.58%, 6.35%, ndi 4.07%, motero.
Ndalama za Vinda International kuyambira 2020 mpaka 2022 zidzakhala yuan biliyoni 13.897, yuan biliyoni 15.269, ndi yuan biliyoni 17.345, phindu lokwanira la yuan biliyoni 1.578, yuan 1.34 biliyoni, ndi yuan 631 miliyoni. 28.24%, ndipo chiwongoladzanja cha chiwongoladzanja chinali 11.35%, 8.77%, ndi 3.64%, motsatira.
Kuchokera ku 2020 mpaka 2022, ndalama za Hengan International zidzakhala 22.374 biliyoni yuan, 20.79 biliyoni yuan, ndi 22.616 biliyoni motsatira, ndipo malonda a minofu adzakhala 46.41%, 47.34%, ndi 54.16% motsatira; phindu lonse lidzakhala yuan biliyoni 4.608 ndi yuan biliyoni 3.29 motsatira, yuan biliyoni 1.949; mapindu onse anali 42.26%, 37.38%, ndi 34% motsatira, ndipo malire a phindu anali 20.6%, 15.83%, ndi 8.62%.
M'zaka zitatu zapitazi, ngakhale kuti makampani atatu akuluakulu a mapepala apanyumba akupitirizabe kukweza mitengo, zimakhala zovuta kuthetsa ndalama zomwe zikukwera, ndipo ntchito ndi phindu la kampaniyo zikupitirirabe kuchepa.
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02. Malo osinthika a magwiridwe antchito atha kubwera posachedwa
Pa Epulo 19, Zhongshun Jierou adatulutsa lipoti lake loyamba la kotala la 2023. Chilengezochi chikuwonetsa kuti m'gawo loyamba la 2023, ndalama zogwirira ntchito za kampaniyo zinali 2.061 biliyoni ya yuan, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 9.35%; Phindu lonse la eni ake amakampani omwe adatchulidwa linali 89.44 miliyoni yuan, kutsika kwapachaka ndi 32.93%.
Malinga ndi gawo loyamba la 2023, momwe kampaniyo idasinthiratu.
Komabe, kutengera mtengo wa zamkati, pali zizindikiro za chiyembekezo. Malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu yayikulu ya zamkati, mphamvu yayikulu ya zamkati idapitilira kukwera kuchoka pa 4252 yuan/ton pa February 3, 2020 mpaka kufika pa 7652 yuan/ton pa Marichi 1, 2022. Pambuyo pake, idasintha pang'ono. , koma anakhalabe pafupifupi 6700 yuan/ton . Pa Disembala 12, 2022, mphamvu yayikulu yazamkati idapitilira kukwera mpaka 7452 yuan/ton, ndikupitilira kutsika. Pofika pa Epulo 23, 2023, mphamvu yayikulu yazamkati idapitilira kukhala 5208 yuan / tani, yomwe yatsika ndi 30.11% kuchokera pamalo apamwamba am'mbuyomu.
Ngati mtengo wa zamkati ukasungidwa pamlingo uwu mu 2023, ukhala wofanana ndi theka loyamba la 2019.
Mu theka loyamba la 2019, phindu lonse la Zhongshun Jierou linali 36.69%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 8.66%; phindu lonse la Vinda International linali 27.38%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 4.35%; phindu lonse la Hengan International linali 37.04%, ndipo phindu lonse linali 17.67%. Kuchokera pamalingaliro awa, ngati mtengo wamtengowo ukhalabe pafupifupi 5,208 yuan/tani mu 2023, chiwongola dzanja chamakampani atatu akuluakulu a mapepala apanyumba chikuyembekezeka kukwera kwambiri, ndipo magwiridwe antchito awo adzabweretsanso kusintha.
CITIC Securities ikuneneratu kuti kutsika kwamitengo yazamkati kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2020, mawu akunja amtundu wa softwood pulp/hardwood zamkati adzakhala otsika ngati US$570/450/ton. Kuyambira 2019 mpaka 2020 ndi theka loyamba la 2021, Vinda International'Phindu la phindu lidzakhala 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, chiwongola dzanja cha Zhongshun Jierou ndi 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% motsatana, ndipo phindu la bizinesi ya minofu ya Hengan International ndi 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Mgawo lachinayi la 2022, phindu la Vinda International ndi Zhongshun Jierou lidzakhala 0.4% ndi 3.1% motsatana. Mu theka loyamba la 2022, phindu la bizinesi ya pepala la Hengan International lidzakhala -2.6%. Mabizinesi adzayang'ana kwambiri pakubwezeretsa phindu, zoyesayesa zotsatsira malonda zikuyembekezeka kuyendetsedwa mkati mwamitundu ina, ndipo mitengo yotsika imakhala yokhazikika..mwezi wokoma bokosi
Poganizira za mpikisano (kuchuluka kwatsopano kwa mapepala a minofu mu 2020/2021 ndi matani 1.89 / 2.33 miliyoni) ndi njira yotsogola yamtengo wapatali, CITIC Securities ikuneneratu kuti chiwongola dzanja cha pepala lotsogola pamtengo wozungulirawu watsika. Kuzungulira kukuyembekezeka kuchira mpaka 8% -10% %.
Pakalipano, mitengo yamtengo wapatali yalowa m'nyengo yotsika. Pazifukwa izi, makampani opanga mapepala apanyumba akuyembekezeka kuyambitsa kusintha kwa magwiridwe antchito.
Nthawi yotumiza: May-15-2023
