Cov nqi ntawv tshaj muag thiab thim rov qab, thiab daim ntawv kev lag luam txoj kev vam meej ushered nyob rau hauv ib qho inflection point?
Tsis ntev los no, muaj qee qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam papermaking. A-share Tsingshan Paper (600103.SH), Yueyang Forest Paper (600963.SH), Huatai Tshuag (600308.SH), thiab Hong Kong-listed Chenming Ntawv (01812.HK) txhua tus muaj qee qhov kev nce qib tuaj yeem cuam tshuam. mus rau qhov tsis ntev los no tus nqi nce ntawm daim ntawv. khoom qab zib khoom noj txom ncauj box
Cov tuam txhab ntawv "nce nqi" lossis "tus nqi pov hwm"
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, cov duab los qhia dawb tau nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws ntawm ntau hom ntawv. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv pej xeem, kev lag luam hauv nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm 250g rau 400g dawb cardboard tau nqis los ntawm 5110 yuan / ton thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau tam sim no 4110 yuan / ton, thiab tseem tab tom teeb tsa tshiab lows hauv tsib xyoos dhau los.
Tau ntsib nrog tus nqi ntawm cov duab los qhia dawb poob mus tas li, pib txij Lub Xya Hli 3, qee lub tuam txhab me thiab nruab nrab ntawm cov ntawv dawb dawb hauv Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi thiab lwm thaj chaw tau ua tus thawj coj hauv kev tshaj tawm cov ntawv nce nqi. Thaum Lub Xya Hli 6, cov thawj coj dawb cardboard kev lag luam Enterprises xws li Bohui Ntawv thiab Sun Paper kuj tau ua raws li thiab muab cov ntawv hloov nqi, npaj kom nce tus nqi tam sim no ntawm tag nrho cov khoom los ntawm 200 yuan / ton. costco khoom qab zib thawv
Yog vim li cas tom qab tus nqi nce yuav yog qhov tsis muaj zog txav. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias tus nqi thiab daim ntawv tus nqi ntawm cov duab los qhia dawb tau qhia txog qhov xwm txheej loj heev, thiab cov tuam txhab ntawv tsuas tuaj yeem ua tiav lub hom phiaj ntawm kev txwv tsis pub poob los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke kho cov nqi.
Qhov tseeb, thaum pib lub Ob Hlis xyoo no, kev lag luam ntawv twb tau npaj yuav nce nqi. Cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam xws li Bohui Paper, Chenming Paper, thiab Wanguo Paper tau ua tus thawj coj hauv kev nce nqi ntawm cov ntawv dawb. Tom qab ntawd, Yueyang Forestry thiab Ntawv ua raws li kev cai. Cov nthwv dej ntawm tus nqi nce kis los ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam mus rau cov tuam txhab ntawv me thiab nruab nrab, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig rov qab tsis zoo, thiab cov nyhuv tsaws yog nruab nrab. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog qhov kev xav tau qis qis qis, thiab cov tuam txhab ntawv tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis nce nqi. Qhov tseeb, nws yog los tiv thaiv tus nqi thiab tiv thaiv tus nqi qis dua. khoom qab zib thiab khoom noj txom ncauj box
Kev lag luam ntawv ua haujlwm rau ntau qhov kev lag luam hauv qab, nrog rau kev noj, kev tsim khoom, thiab lwm yam. Nws yog suav tias yog ib qho barometer ntawm kev lag luam, thiab feem ntau suav hais tias yog qhov qhia txog kev lag luam muaj zog. Qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm daim ntawv nqi xyoo no kuj qhia txog qee qhov uas nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig macro tam sim no, cov txheej txheem ntawm kev lag luam rov qab tuaj yeem qis dua qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam. Japanese khoom qab zib box
Pulp nqi ntawm tus nqi kawg yog nyob rau hauv siab
Lub hauv paus ntawm kev lag luam papermaking saw muaj xws li hav zoov, pulping, thiab lwm yam, thiab cov downstream muaj xws li papermaking thiab ntawv cov khoom, uas muab faib ua corrugated ntawv, dawb board ntawv, dawb cardboard, art paper, thiab lwm yam. Nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntawm papermaking, lub tus nqi ntawm pulp suav txog 60% mus rau 70%, thiab qee hom ntawv txawm mus txog 85%.khoom qab zib los ntawm lwm lub teb chaws lub thawv
Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, cov nqi pulp txuas ntxiv khiav ntawm qib siab. Softwood pulp tau nce los ntawm 5,950 yuan / tuj thaum pib ntawm 2022 txog 7,340 yuan / ton thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, nce ntawm 23.36%. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov ntoo tawv tawv tau nce ntawm 5,070 yuan / tuj mus rau 6,446 yuan / ton tons, nce ntawm 27.14%. Tus nqi muaj zog ntawm pulp tau nyem cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv, thiab cov dej ntws qis yog kev nyuaj siab.
Txij li xyoo 2023, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi pulp tau ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab rau cov tuam txhab ntawv. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv, pulp yav tom ntej tau poob los ntawm ze li ntawm 7,000 yuan / tuj thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau ib ncig ntawm 5,000 yuan / ton thiab ruaj khov. Qhov poob siab tshaj qhov kev cia siab.
Yog vim li cas tom qab lub cev qhuav dej ntawm cov nqi pulp nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tej zaum yuav muaj peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm txawv teb chaws hardwood pulp. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov xwm txheej xws li kev noj qeeb qeeb hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm cov paj laum siab txawv teb chaws kuj tau tsim kev txwv tsis pub muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nqi paj ntoo. Txawm hais tias qee lub tshuab pulp tau ua rau "sawv ntawm tus nqi", cov nyhuv tsis pom tseeb. txhua hli japanese khoom qab zib box
Feem ntau cov tsev kawm ntawv tsis zoo siab txog qhov kev taug qab ntawm cov nqi pulp. Shenyin Wanguo Kev Tshawb Fawb Tshaj Tawm ntseeg tias tus qauv ntawm cov khoom siv tawv nqaij muaj zog thiab kev xav tau tsis muaj zog txuas ntxiv mus, cov hauv paus tseem ceeb tau poob qis, thiab qhov chaw rov qab tag nrho yuav tsum raug txwv. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev poob qis dhau los tau qhia txog qhov tsis muaj zog tam sim no.
Qhov no kuj zoo li qhia tau hais tias lub sijhawm phem tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam ntawv tau dhau mus, thiab kev lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev vam meej. Cov neeg nyob rau hauv kev lag luam feem ntau ntseeg hais tias vim yog lub siab ntawm cov nqi pulp, lub hauv paus tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau txoj kev vam meej ntawm daim ntawv kev lag luam tau hloov ntawm tus nqi mus rau sab xav tau dua. khoom qab zib thawv los ntawm thoob plaws lub ntiaj teb no
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg, kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv feem ntau yog qhov qeeb qeeb. Sun Paper, uas muaj cov nyiaj tau los loj tshaj plaws, tau ua tiav cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 566 lab yuan hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 16.21%. Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov niam txiv ntawm Shanying International thiab Chenming Ntawv yog -341 lab yuan thiab -275 lab yuan, poob qis ntawm 270.67% thiab 341.76% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, qhov poob ntawm theem siab ntawm pulp coj ib tug ntse poob nyob rau hauv lub siab ntawm domestic ntawv tuam txhab uas muag. Kev ua lag luam papermaking tuaj yeem ua rau muaj ob lub catalyst ntawm tus nqi nce thiab cov nqi poob qis, thiab kev ua haujlwm yuav tsum rov qab los. Raws li cov xwm txheej ntawm kev kho, nws yuav raug tshaj tawm hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm ib nrab xyoo ntawm cov tuam txhab cuam tshuam.
Integrated layout rau consolidate kev sib tw
kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom siv pulp yeej ib txwm nyob ntawm cov teb chaws txawv teb chaws, thiab cov pulp feem ntau yog los ntawm Canada, Chile, Tebchaws Meskas, Russia thiab lwm lub tebchaws. Vim muaj kev nplua nuj ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau pulping, Canada yeej ib txwm yog tus tsim khoom loj ntawm cov tawv nqaij thiab ib qho ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov txiv ntoo tuaj hauv Suav teb. Pulp mills haus ntau hav zoov thiab ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj rau ib puag ncig. Kev lag luam hauv tsev muaj kev txwv nruj rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam pulp, qhov chaw pib yog siab, thiab cov nqi khiav hauj lwm tseem siab dua qee qhov txawv teb chaws pulp mills. khoom qab zib los ntawm thoob ntiaj teb lub thawv
Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog hais tias nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm cov khoom lag luam nruj ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov nqi siab rau lub sijhawm ntev, lub neej ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv hauv tsev tsis tau yooj yim, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau maj mam nthuav dav mus rau sab saud ntawm cov khoom lag luam, thiab cov thawj kev sib cais ntawm afforestation, pulping, Peb qhov txuas ntawm papermaking yog kev koom ua ke los txhawb lub layout ntawm "forestry-pulp-paper kev koom ua ke" project thiab txhim khu nws tus kheej pulp mov muaj peev xwm, thiaj li. los xyuas kom meej qhov ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom thiab txo cov nqi tsim khoom thiab ua haujlwm ntxiv. lub thawv ntawm chocolate khoom qab zib
Ntau tus neeg ua haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam ntawv hauv tsev, xws li Chenming Paper thiab Sun Paper, twb tau pib tsim cov txheej txheem. Chenming Paper yog suav tias yog ib lub tuam txhab ntawv thaum ntxov uas tau pib lub tswv yim "pulp thiab paper integration". Nyob rau xyoo 2005, Chenming Group tau ua tiav txoj haujlwm ua haujlwm hauv hav zoov-pulp-paper kev koom ua ke hauv Zhanjiang, Guangdong pom zoo los ntawm Lub Xeev Pawg Saib Xyuas. Qhov project no yog ib txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb loj rau lub teb chaws los txhawb kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev tsim hav zoov, pulp thiab ntawv. Nws nyob hauv Leizhou Peninsula nyob rau sab qab teb ntawm Tuam Tshoj mainland. Nws muaj qhov pom tseeb qhov chaw zoo ntawm kev ua lag luam, kev thauj mus los thiab cov peev txheej. Qhov chaw zoo. Txij thaum ntawd los, Chenming Paper tau txuas ntxiv xa cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov ntawv sib koom ua ke hauv Shouguang, Huanggang thiab lwm qhov chaw. Tam sim no, Chenming Ntawv tag nrho cov ntoo pulp tsim muaj peev xwm tau mus txog 4.3 lab tons, pib paub txog qhov sib txuam ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov ntawv tsim tawm.
Tsis tas li ntawd, Sun Ntawv tseem tab tom tsim nws tus kheej "pulp kab" nyob rau hauv Beihai, Guangxi, ntshuam ntoo chips los tsim pulp, ua kom muaj feem ntawm tus kheej-tsim pulp thiab txo nqi. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub tuam txhab nquag nthuav dav kev tsim kho ntawm cov hav zoov txawv teb chaws los muab kev lees paub rau yav tom ntej ntawm cov khoom siv raw. box saib cov khoom qab zib
Ntawm qhov tod tes, daim ntawv kev lag luam zoo li tau tawm ntawm lub trough, thiab qee cov ntawv qib tau pib nce nqi. Yog tias cov txheej txheem rov qab los hauv qab no tshaj qhov kev cia siab, kev lag luam ntawv yuav muaj qhov cuam tshuam rau hauv nws txoj kev vam meej.
Hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los, qee qhov me me thiab nruab nrab thiab cov ntawv tshaj tawm cov peev txheej tau raug tshem tawm tom qab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev txo qis. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog cov qauv ntawm kev sib xyaw layout, kev ua lag luam sib koom ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv ua lag luam yuav tsum tau nce ntxiv, thiab cov tuam txhab muaj feem cuam tshuam tuaj yeem ua rau ob qho kev kho dua tshiab ntawm cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev ntsuas.
Post lub sij hawm: Lub Xya hli ntuj-11-2023
