Kev sib piv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag ntawm peb lub tsev ntawv loj loj: Puas yog qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev ua tau zoo hauv 2023 los?
Kev taw qhia: Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm cov ntoo pulp tau nkag mus rau lub voj voog qis, thiab cov txiaj ntsig poob qis thiab kev ua haujlwm poob qis los ntawm tus nqi siab dhau los yuav tsum tau txhim kho.
Zhongshun Jierou yuav ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm ntawm 8.57 billion yuan nyob rau hauv 2022, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ntawm 6.34%; cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv cuab ntawm cov tuam txhab teev npe yog kwv yees li 350 lab yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 39.77%.
Vinda International yuav paub txog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm HK $ 19.418 billion hauv 2022, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 3.97%; net profit los ntawm niam txiv lub tuam txhab ntawm HK $ 706 lab, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo txo ntawm 56.91%.
Hais txog cov laj thawj ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev ua haujlwm, Vinda International tau hais tias ntxiv rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis hauv 2022, kev nce ntxiv ntawm cov nqi raw khoom yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau lub tuam txhab kev ua haujlwm.
Hengan International yuav ua tiav cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 22.616 billion yuan hauv 2022, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 8.8%; cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub tuam txhab cov neeg tuav pov hwm kev ncaj ncees yuav yog 1.925 billion yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 41.2%.
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Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, cov ntaub ntawv phuam ua lag luam yeej ib txwm yog lub lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm Hengan International. Xyoo 2022, qhov kev lag luam ntawm Hengan International yuav ua tau zoo. Xyoo 2022, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm Hengan International cov ntaub so ntswg ua lag luam yuav nce li ntawm 24.4% mus rau 12.248 billion yuan, suav txog kwv yees li 54.16% ntawm pab pawg cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho; nws yog 9.842 billion yuan nyob rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, suav txog 47.34%.
Kev txiav txim siab los ntawm 2022 cov ntawv tshaj tawm txhua xyoo tau tshaj tawm los ntawm peb lub tuam txhab ntawv, kev poob qis hauv kev ua haujlwm feem ntau yog vim qhov nce siab ntawm cov khoom siv raw.
SunSirs soj ntsuam cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias txij li xyoo 2022, cov nqi ntawm cov ntoo mos thiab cov tawv ntoo tawv tawv, cov ntaub ntawv nyoos rau cov ntoo pulp, tau hloov pauv mus rau sab saud. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam ntawm softwood pulp nyob rau hauv Shandong ib zaug nce mus rau 7750 yuan / ton, thiab hardwood pulp ib zaug nce mus rau 6700 yuan / tuj.
Raws li qhov kev nyuaj siab ntawm cov nqi raw khoom nce siab, kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv loj kuj tau poob qis, thiab kev lag luam tseem ntsib cov teeb meem loj.
01. Kev nce nqi yog ib qho nyuaj rau offset qhov nce hauv cov khoom siv raw
Cov khoom siv raw siv hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm cov ntaub so ntswg muaj xws li pulp, tshuaj additives thiab cov khoom ntim. Ntawm lawv, pulp suav txog 50% -70% ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom, thiab kev lag luam pulp yog qhov tseem ceeb thiab tseem ceeb tshaj plaws kev lag luam ntawm cov ntawv hauv tsev. Raws li cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub so ntswg cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam voj voog, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi pulp cuam tshuam rau tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev.
Txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2020, cov nqi pulp tau nce ntxiv. Thaum kawg ntawm 2021, tus nqi ntawm pulp hovered ntawm 5,500-6,000 yuan / ton, thiab thaum kawg ntawm 2022, nws tau nce mus rau 7,400-7,800 yuan / ton.
Txhawm rau tiv thaiv tus nqi nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2020, cov tuam txhab ntawv hauv tsev thoob plaws lub tebchaws tau pib nce nqi ib zaug. Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 31, 2020, nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm 2020, qhov nce ntawm cov ntawv tiav tau nce mus txog 800-1,000 yuan / tuj, thiab tus nqi qub qub tau nce los ntawm qhov qis tshaj ntawm 5,500-5,700 yuan / ton mus ze li ntawm 7,000 yuan/ton. , Xinxiangyin ex-Factory nqi tau mus txog 12,500 yuan / ton.
Thaum pib lub Plaub Hlis 2021, cov tuam txhab xws li Zhongshun Cleanroom thiab Vinda International tau nce nqi ntxiv.
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Zhongshun Jierou tau hais hauv tsab ntawv nce nqi nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd tias cov khoom siv raw cov nqi txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab lub tuam txhab cov nqi tsim khoom thiab cov nqi khiav lag luam tau nce ntxiv. Vinda International (Beijing) kuj tau hais tias vim qhov nce ntxiv ntawm cov nqi raw khoom, cov nqi tsim khoom tau nce siab, thiab nws npaj yuav kho cov nqi rau qee cov khoom lag luam Vinda txij lub Plaub Hlis 1.
Tom qab ntawd, hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, Zhongshun Jierou pib nce nqi dua, thiab nce qib. Raws li lub quarter thib peb ntawm 2022, Zhongshun Jierou tau tsa tus nqi ntawm feem ntau ntawm nws cov khoom.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce nqi txuas ntxiv ntawm cov tuam txhab ntawv tsis ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv lub tuam txhab kev ua haujlwm. Ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, lub tuam txhab kev ua haujlwm tau poob qis vim qhov nce nqi.
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Los ntawm 2020 mus rau 2022, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Zhongshun Jierou yuav yog 7.824 billion yuan, 9.15 billion yuan, thiab 8.57 billion yuan, raws li, nrog net profits ntawm 906 lab yuan, 581 lab yuan, thiab 349 lab yuan ntawm profits. % thiab 3.592 billion yuan. %, 31.96%, thiab cov paj paj tau paj yog 11.58%, 6.35%, thiab 4.07%, feem.
Vinda International cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 2020 txog 2022 yuav yog 13.897 billion yuan, 15.269 billion yuan, thiab 17.345 billion yuan, nrog net profits ntawm 1.578 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, thiab 631 lab yuan. 28.24%, thiab cov paj laum yog 11.35%, 8.77%, thiab 3.64%, feem.
Los ntawm 2020 txog 2022, Hengan International cov nyiaj tau los yuav yog 22.374 billion yuan, 20.79 billion yuan, thiab 22.616 billion yuan raws, thiab cov ntaub so ntswg lag luam yuav suav txog 46.41%, 47.34%, thiab 54.16% feem; cov nyiaj tau los yuav yog 4.608 billion yuan thiab 3.29 billion yuan feem, 1.949 billion yuan; Cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho yog 42.26%, 37.38%, thiab 34% feem, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau nyiaj tau los yog 20.6%, 15.83%, thiab 8.62%.
Hauv peb lub xyoos dhau los, txawm hais tias peb lub tuam txhab ntawv loj hauv tsev tau txuas ntxiv nce tus nqi, nws tseem nyuaj rau offset tus nqi nce, thiab lub tuam txhab kev ua tau zoo thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau poob qis.
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02. Lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev ua tau zoo yuav tuaj sai sai
Lub Plaub Hlis 19, Zhongshun Jierou tau tshaj tawm nws thawj peb lub hlis twg daim ntawv tshaj tawm rau 2023. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm yog 2.061 billion yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 9.35%; cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv cuab ntawm cov tuam txhab teev npe yog 89.44 lab yuan, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 32.93%.
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, lub tuam txhab kev ua tau zoo tsis tau thim rov qab.
Txawm li cas los xij, txiav txim siab los ntawm tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov pulp, muaj cov cim ntawm kev cia siab. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv txuas ntxiv ntawm lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm cov tawv nqaij, lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm cov tawv nqaij txuas ntxiv los ntawm 4252 yuan / ton ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 3, 2020 mus rau siab txog 7652 yuan / ton rau lub Peb Hlis 1, 2022. Tom qab ntawd, nws tau hloov me ntsis. , tab sis tseem nyob ib ncig ntawm 6700 yuan / ton. Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 12, 2022, lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm cov tawv nqaij txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov siab ntawm 7452 yuan / ton, thiab tom qab ntawd txuas ntxiv poob. Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 23, 2023, lub zog tseem ceeb ntawm cov tawv nqaij txuas ntxiv yog 5208 yuan / tuj, uas tau nqis los ntawm 30.11% los ntawm qhov siab dhau los.
Yog tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom noj tau khaws cia ntawm qib no hauv 2023, nws yuav luag zoo ib yam li thawj ib nrab xyoo 2019.
Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2019, tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Zhongshun Jierou yog 36.69%, thiab cov nyiaj tau los yog 8.66%; cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho ntawm Vinda International yog 27.38%, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 4.35%; tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Hengan International yog 37.04%, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 17.67%. Los ntawm qhov kev xav no, yog tias tus nqi pulp tau khaws cia nyob ib ncig ntawm 5,208 yuan / tuj hauv 2023, tus paj laum ntawm peb lub tuam txhab ntawv loj hauv tsev yuav tsum nce siab, thiab lawv cov kev ua tau zoo yuav ua rau muaj kev thim rov qab.
CITIC Securities kwv yees tias nyob rau hauv lub voj voog qis ntawm cov nqi pulp los ntawm 2019 txog 2020, cov lus hais sab nraud ntawm softwood pulp / hardwood pulp yuav tsawg li US $ 570/450 / tuj. Los ntawm 2019 txog 2020 thiab thawj ib nrab ntawm 2021, Vinda International's net profit margin yuav yog 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, tus paj paj ntawm Zhongshun Jierou yog 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% feem, thiab kev khiav hauj lwm cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Hengan International cov ntaub so ntswg ua lag luam yog 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
Hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2022, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Vinda International thiab Zhongshun Jierou yuav yog 0.4% thiab 3.1% feem. Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, kev khiav hauj lwm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Hegan International cov ntaub so ntswg kev lag luam yuav yog -2.6%. Cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsom mus rau kev rov ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, kev txhawb nqa kev muag khoom yuav tsum tau tswj nyob rau hauv qee qhov ntau, thiab cov nqi davhlau ya nyob twg yog qhov ruaj khov..lub hli qab zib thawv
Noj mus rau hauv tus account qhov kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes (tshiab tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm cov ntaub so ntswg daim ntawv nyob rau hauv 2020/2021 yog 1.89/2.33 lab tons) thiab tus nqi zoo tshaj, CITIC Securities kwv yees tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov ntaub so ntswg ua nyob rau hauv no puag ncig ntawm pulp nqi nqes. Lub voj voog yuav tsum rov qab mus rau 8% -10%%.
Tam sim no, cov nqi pulp tau nkag mus rau lub voj voog qis. Raws li keeb kwm yav dhau los no, cov tuam txhab ntawv hauv tsev yuav tsum tau coj mus rau qhov kev thim rov qab.
Post lub sij hawm: May-15-2023
