Mai ke kūlana o ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā nunui o nā ʻāpana corrugated ʻEulopa e ʻike i ke ʻano o ka ʻoihana pahu pahu ma 2023
I kēia makahiki, ua hoʻomau ka poʻe pilikua pahu pahu ʻEulopa i ka loaʻa kālā kiʻekiʻe ʻoiai ke ʻano ʻino o ke kūlana, akā pehea ka lōʻihi o kā lākou lanakila lanakila? Ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa, he makahiki paʻakikī ʻo 2022 no nā nunui pahu pahu pahu nui. Me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai ikehu a me nā kumukūʻai hana, ʻo nā hui ʻEulopa kiʻekiʻe e pili ana me Schmofi Kappa Group a me Desma Group e hakakā pū ana me nā kumukūʻai pepa.
Wahi a nā mea loiloi ma Jeffries, mai ka makahiki 2020, ua aneane pālua ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka pahu pahu recycled, kahi ʻāpana koʻikoʻi o ka hana pepa pepa. ʻO kahi ʻē aʻe, ʻo ke kumukūʻai o ka pahu pahu puʻupaʻa i hana pololei ʻia mai nā lāʻau ma mua o nā pahu pahu hana hou i hahai i kahi ala like. I ka manawa like, ke hōʻemi nei nā mea kūʻai aku i kā lākou hoʻolimalima ma ka pūnaewele, ʻo ia ka mea e hōʻemi i ka noi no nā pahu pahu.
ʻO nā lā hanohano i lawe ʻia mai e ke ahulau lei aliʻi hou, e like me ka holo ʻana o nā kauoha me ka piha piha, ka paʻa ʻana o nā pahu pahu, a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai o nā mea nunui puʻupuʻu… ua pau kēia mau mea. Eia nō naʻe, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kēia mau ʻoihana ma mua o ka wā. Ua hōʻike koke ʻo Smurfi Kappa i ka piʻi ʻana o 43% o ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka ukupanee, ʻauhau, depreciation a me ka amortization mai Ianuali a hiki i ka hopena o Kepakemapa, ʻoiai ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā ma ka hapakolu. ʻO ia ke ʻano o kāna loaʻa kālā 2022 a me nā loaʻa kālā i ʻoi aku ma mua o nā pae pre-pandemic, ʻoiai he hapaha o ke ala a hiki i ka hopena o 2022.
Eia nō naʻe, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻo Desma, ka nui o ka UK corrugated packaging pilikua, i kāna wānana no ka makahiki a hiki i ka 30 ʻApelila 2023, e ʻōlelo ana ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka loaʻa kālā no ka hapa mua ma ka liʻiliʻi o £ 400 miliona, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 2019. ʻo 351 miliona mau paona. Ua hoʻonui ʻo Mondi i kona palena ma lalo o 3 pakeneka, ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pālua ʻana i kāna loaʻa kālā i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki, ʻoiai ke waiho nei i nā pilikia i hoʻoholo ʻole ʻia i kāna ʻoihana ʻoi aku ka ʻoi aku o Rusia.
ʻO ka hoʻolaha kālepa kālepa ʻo Desma ʻo ʻOkakopa he mea liʻiliʻi i nā kikoʻī, akā ua ʻōlelo ʻia "nā puke haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa no nā pahu corrugated hoʻohālikelike". Pēlā nō, ʻo ka ulu ikaika o Smurf Kappa ʻaʻole ia ma muli o ke kūʻai ʻana aku i nā pahu hou aʻe - ua palahalaha kāna kūʻai ʻana i nā pahu corrugated i nā mahina ʻeiwa mua o 2022 a hāʻule hoʻi i ka 3% i ke kolu o ka hapaha. ʻO ka mea ʻē aʻe, hoʻonui kēia mau kanaka nunui i ka loaʻa kālā o nā ʻoihana ma ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kumukūʻai o nā huahana.
Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole i hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ka nui o ke kālepa. Ma ke kelepona loaʻa kālā o kēia mahina, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Smurfi Kappa CEO Tony Smurphy: "ʻO ka nui o ke kālepa i ka hapahā ʻehā ua like loa me ka mea a mākou i ʻike ai i ka hapaha ʻekolu. ʻOhi ʻana. ʻOiaʻiʻo, manaʻo wau ua palahalaha kekahi mau mākeke e like me UK a me Kelemānia no nā mahina ʻelua a ʻekolu paha i hala.
Ke nīnau nei kēia i ka nīnau: he aha ka hopena i ka ʻoihana pahu corrugated i 2023? Inā hoʻomaka ka mākeke a me nā mea kūʻai aku no ka ʻeke ʻeke ʻeke i ka pae, hiki anei i nā mea hana ʻeke ʻeke ʻeke ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai e loaʻa ai nā waiwai kiʻekiʻe? Ua hauʻoli ka poʻe loiloi i ka hoʻopiʻi ʻana o SmurfKappa i hāʻawi ʻia i ke kāʻei macro paʻakikī a me ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pahu pahu nāwaliwali i hōʻike ʻia ma ka home. I ka manawa like, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Smurfi Kappa he "hoʻohālikelike ikaika loa ka hui i ka makahiki i hala, kahi pae a mākou i manaʻo mau ai ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻomau".
Eia naʻe, kānalua loa nā mea kālā. ʻO nā māhele o Smurfi Kappa he 25% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ke kiʻekiʻe o ka maʻi maʻi maʻi, a ʻo Desmar's i lalo he 31%. ʻO wai ka pololei? ʻAʻole pili wale ka holomua i ke kūʻai ʻana i ka pahu pahu a me ka papa. Wahi a ka poʻe loiloi ma Jefferies e hāʻule ana nā kumukūʻai pahu pahu recycled no ka nawaliwali o ka noi macro, akā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hāʻule ʻana o ka pepa ʻōpala a me nā kumukūʻai ikehu, no ka mea, ʻo ia hoʻi ke hāʻule nei ke kumukūʻai o ka hana ʻana.
"ʻO ka mea i ʻike pinepine ʻia, i ko mākou manaʻo, ʻo nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa hiki ke lilo i mea hoʻonui nui i ka loaʻa kālā a ʻo ka mea hope loa, no nā mea hana pahu corrugated, ʻo ka pōmaikaʻi o ka mālama ʻana i ke kumukūʻai e lilo i ka uku o nā kumukūʻai pahu haʻahaʻa. Ua hōʻike mua ʻia ʻoi aku ka paʻa o kēia ma ke ala i lalo (3-6 mahina lag). ʻO ka holoʻokoʻa, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā mai ke kumu kūʻai haʻahaʻa i hoʻopau ʻia e nā poʻo kumu kūʻai mai ka loaʻa kālā. mea kālailai ma Jeffries Say.
I ka manawa like, ʻaʻole pololei loa ka nīnau o nā koi ponoʻī. ʻOiai ua hoʻoweliweli ka e-commerce a me ka lohi i ka hana ʻana o nā ʻoihana hoʻopili corrugated, ʻo ka hapa nui o ke kūʻai aku o kēia mau pūʻulu i nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe. Ma Desma, ma kahi o 80% o ka loaʻa kālā mai nā mea kūʻai wikiwiki (FMCG), ʻo ia nā huahana i kūʻai nui ʻia ma nā hale kūʻai kūʻai nui, a ma kahi o 70% o ka pahu pahu pahu a Smurfi Kappa i hāʻawi ʻia i nā mea kūʻai mai FMCG. Pono kēia e hōʻoia i ke kūpaʻa ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke hopena, a ua ʻike ʻo Desma i ka ulu maikaʻi ʻana i nā wahi e like me ke pani plastik.
No laila ʻoiai ke neʻe nei ka noi, ʻaʻole paha ia e hāʻule ma lalo o kahi manawa - ʻoi aku ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka hoʻi ʻana o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻoihana i hoʻopilikia ʻia e ka maʻi maʻi COVID-19. Kākoʻo ʻia kēia e nā hopena hou mai MacFarlane (MACF), ka mea i ʻike i ka piʻi ʻana o 14% o ka loaʻa kālā i nā mahina ʻeono mua o 2022 ma ke ʻano he hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana i ka mokulele, ʻenekinia a me nā mea kūʻai hoʻokipa ma mua o ka hoʻopau ʻana i ka lohi i ka kūʻai pūnaewele.
Ke hoʻohana nei ka poʻe packer corrugated i ka maʻi maʻi e hoʻomaikaʻi i kā lākou mau pale kaulike. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Tony Smurphy, Luna Nui o Smurfi Kappa, ʻo kāna ʻoihana kapena "ma ke kūlana maikaʻi loa a mākou i ʻike ai" i ko mākou mōʻaukala, me kahi ʻaiʻē/loaʻa ma mua o ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā manawa he 1.4. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Desmar Luna Nui ʻo Myles Roberts i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa, e ʻōlelo ana ua hāʻule ka hōʻaiʻē / loaʻa kālā o kāna hui ma mua o ka amortization ratio i 1.6 mau manawa, "kekahi o nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a mākou i ʻike ai i nā makahiki he nui".
Hoʻohui kēia mau mea a pau i ka manaʻo o kekahi poʻe loiloi e manaʻo nui ana ka mākeke, ʻoiai e pili ana i ka FTSE 100 packers, ke kumu kūʻai ʻana ma kahi o 20% haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā manaʻo kuʻikahi no ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka amortization. He u'i ko lakou mau koho ana, me ke kuai ana o Desma ma ka lakene P/E mua o 8.7 wale no me ka awelika elima makahiki o 11.1, a me ka lakene P/E mua o Schmurf Kappa he 10.4 me ka awelika elima makahiki o 12.3. E hilinaʻi ka nui i ka hiki o ka ʻoihana e hōʻoia i nā mea hoʻopukapuka hiki iā lākou ke hoʻomau i ka pīhoihoi i 2023.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Dec-13-2022
