ʻO ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā hōʻike kālā o nā mea nunui pepa hale ʻekolu: E hiki mai ana ka helu inflection o ka hana ma 2023?
Alakaʻi: I kēia manawa, ua komo ke kumukūʻai o ka pulp lāʻau i kahi pōʻai i lalo, a ke manaʻo nei e hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā a me ka emi ʻana o ka hana ma muli o ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.
E loaʻa iā Zhongshun Jierou ka loaʻa kālā o 8.57 biliona yuan ma 2022, kahi hoʻemi o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki he 6.34%; ʻO ka loaʻa kālā i loaʻa i ka poʻe kuleana o nā hui i helu ʻia ma kahi o 350 miliona yuan, kahi emi o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki he 39.77%.
E ʻike ʻo Vinda International i ka loaʻa kālā o HK $ 19.418 biliona ma 2022, kahi hoʻonui makahiki o 3.97%; loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā i ka hui makua o HK$706 miliona, he 56.91% ka emi ʻana o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki.
E pili ana i nā kumu o ka emi ʻana o ka hana, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Vinda International ma kahi o ka hopena o ka maʻi maʻi ma 2022, ʻo ka piʻi mau ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka he hopena maikaʻi ʻole i ka hana o ka ʻoihana.
E loaʻa i ka Hengan International ka loaʻa kālā o 22.616 biliona yuan ma 2022, kahi hoʻonui makahiki-ma-makahiki o 8.8%; ʻO ka loaʻa kālā i loaʻa i ka poʻe paʻa waiwai o ka hui he 1.925 biliona yuan, kahi emi o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki he 41.2%.
pahu kuki
Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka lakio kālā, ʻo ka ʻoihana kāwele pepa ka ʻoihana koʻikoʻi o Hengan International. Ma 2022, e hana maikaʻi ana kēia ʻoihana o Hengan International. I ka makahiki 2022, e hoʻonui ʻia ka loaʻa kālā kūʻai o ka ʻoihana kāwele pepa o Hengan International ma kahi o 24.4% a i 12.248 billion yuan, e helu ana ma kahi o 54.16% o ka loaʻa kālā holoʻokoʻa o ka hui; he 9.842 biliona yuan i ka manawa like i ka makahiki i hala, he 47.34%.
Ke hoʻoholo nei mai nā hōʻike makahiki 2022 i hōʻike ʻia e nā hui pepa ʻekolu, ʻo ka emi ʻana o ka hana ma muli o ka piʻi nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka.
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili nānā ʻo SunSirs mai ka makahiki 2022, ua piʻi i luna nā kumukūʻai o ka pulp lāʻau palupalu a me ka pulp lāʻau paʻakikī, nā mea maka no ka pulp lāʻau. Ua piʻi ka awelika o ke kumukūʻai makeke o ka pulp lāʻau palupalu ma Shandong i ka 7750 yuan/ton, a ua piʻi ka pulp lāʻau paʻa i ka 6700 yuan/ton Ton.
Ma lalo o ke kaomi o ka piʻi nui ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka, ua emi pū ka hana o nā hui pepa nui, a ke kū nei ka ʻoihana i nā pilikia nui.
01. He paʻakikī ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i ka piʻi ʻana o nā mea maka
ʻO nā mea maka i hoʻohana ʻia i ke kaʻina hana o ka pepa kikoo ka pulp, nā mea hoʻohui kemika a me nā mea hoʻopili. Ma waena o lākou, ʻo ka pulp ka helu no 50% -70% o ke kumukūʻai hana, a ʻo ka ʻoihana hana pulp ka mea nui a koʻikoʻi o ka ʻoihana upstream o ka ʻoihana pepa home. Ma ke ʻano he kumu waiwai nui honua, ua hoʻopilikia nui ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka pulp e ka pōʻaiapuni o ka honua, a ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai pulp e pili ana i ka pae waiwai nui o nā huahana pepa hale.
Mai Nowemapa 2020, ua hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai pulp. I ka hopena o 2021, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ka pulp ma 5,500-6,000 yuan / ton, a ma ka hopena o 2022, ua piʻi i ka 7,400-7,800 yuan / ton.
I mea e hoʻokō ai i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā kumukūʻai maka, i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Dekemaba 2020, ua hoʻomaka nā hui pepa hale ma ka ʻāina e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai ma hope o kekahi. Ma ka lā 31 o Dekemaba, 2020, ma ka hapa ʻelua o 2020, ua hiki i ka 800-1,000 yuan / ton ka piʻi ʻana o ka pepa i hoʻopau ʻia, a ua piʻi ke kumu kūʻai o ka hale hana mai kahi haʻahaʻa o 5,500-5,700 yuan / ton a kokoke. 7,000 yuan/ton. , Xinxiangyin ex-factory kumu kūʻai ua hiki i 12,500 yuan / tona.
I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻApelila 2021, hoʻomau nā hui e like me Zhongshun Cleanroom a me Vinda International e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai.
pahu kokoleka
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Zhongshun Jierou ma ka leka hoʻonui kumu kūʻai i kēlā manawa e hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka, a ke piʻi mau nei nā kumukūʻai hana a me nā kumukūʻai hana. Ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo Vinda International (Beijing) ma muli o ka piʻi mau ʻana o nā kumukūʻai maka, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai hana, a ke manaʻo nei e hoʻoponopono i nā kumukūʻai no kekahi mau huahana brand Vinda mai ʻApelila 1.
Ma hope iho, i ka hapaha mua o 2022, ua hoʻomaka ʻo Zhongshun Jierou e hoʻāla hou i nā kumukūʻai, a holomua i nā pae. Ma ka hapaha ʻekolu o 2022, ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻo Zhongshun Jierou i nā kumukūʻai o ka hapa nui o kāna mau huahana.
Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole i alakaʻi ka piʻi mau ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā hui pepa i ka piʻi nui o ka hana o ka hui. ʻO ka mea ʻē aʻe, ua emi ka hana o ka ʻoihana ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai.
kuki pahu keke
Mai 2020 a 2022, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o Zhongshun Jierou he 7.824 biliona yuan, 9.15 biliona yuan, a me 8.57 biliona yuan, kēlā me kēia, me ka loaʻa kālā o 906 miliona yuan, 581 miliona yuan, a me 349 miliona yuan, a me gross profit margins o 41. % a me 3.592 biliona yuan. %, 31.96%, a he 11.58%, 6.35% a me 4.07%.
ʻO ka loaʻa kālā o Vinda International mai 2020 a 2022 he 13.897 biliona yuan, 15.269 biliona yuan, a me 17.345 biliona yuan, me ka loaʻa kālā he 1.578 biliona yuan, 1.34 biliona yuan, a me 631 miliona yuan. 28.24%, a he 11.35%, 8.77%, a me 3.64% ka uku panee net.
Mai 2020 a 2022, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o Hengan International he 22.374 billion yuan, 20.79 billion yuan, a me 22.616 billion yuan ma kēlā me kēia, a ʻo ka ʻoihana kikoo e helu no 46.41%, 47.34%, a me 54.16%; ʻo ka loaʻa kālā he 4.608 billion yuan a me 3.29 billion yuan, 1.949 billion yuan; ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā he 42,26%, 37,38%, a me 34% kēlā me kēia, a he 20,6%, 15,83%, a me 8,62% ka huina kālā.
I nā makahiki ʻekolu i hala iho nei, ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei nā ʻoihana pepa nui ʻekolu i ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kumukūʻai, akā paʻakikī ke hoʻopau i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai, a ke emi nei ka hana a me ka loaʻa kālā o ka hui.
pahu momona o kēlā me kēia mahina
02. Hiki koke mai paha ka helu hoʻololi o ka hana
Ma ka lā 19 o ʻApelila, ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo Zhongshun Jierou i kāna hōʻike hapaha mua no 2023. Hōʻike ka hoʻolaha i ka hapaha mua o 2023, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana ʻo 2.061 biliona yuan, kahi hoʻonui makahiki o 9.35%; ʻO ka loaʻa kālā i loaʻa i ka poʻe kuleana o nā hui i helu ʻia he 89.44 miliona yuan, he 32.93% ka emi ʻana o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki.
Mai ka manaʻo o ka hapaha mua o 2023, ʻaʻole i huli ka hana o ka ʻoihana.
Eia naʻe, i ka hoʻoholo ʻana mai ke kumu kūʻai o ka pulp, aia nā hōʻailona o ka manaʻolana. Wahi a ka ʻikepili mau o ka ikaika nui o ka pulp, ua hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o ka ikaika nui o ka pulp mai 4252 yuan/ton ma Pepeluali 3, 2020 a hiki i 7652 yuan/ton i ka lā Malaki 1, 2022. Ma hope o kēlā, hoʻololi iki ʻia. , akā noho ma kahi o 6700 yuan/ton. Ma Dekemaba 12, 2022, ua hoʻomau ka ikaika nui o ka pulp i kahi kiʻekiʻe o 7452 yuan / ton, a laila hoʻomau i ka emi ʻana. Ma ka lā 23 ʻApelila, 2023, ua hoʻomau ʻia ka ikaika nui o ka pulp he 5208 yuan/ton, i hāʻule i ka 30.11% mai ka helu kiʻekiʻe ma mua.
Inā mālama ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka pulp ma kēia pae ma 2023, e like ia me ka hapa mua o 2019.
I ka hapa mua o 2019, ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o Zhongshun Jierou he 36.69%, a he 8.66% ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā; ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o Vinda International he 27.38%, a he 4.35% ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā; ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o Hengan International he 37.04%, a he 17.67%. Mai kēia manaʻo, inā mālama ʻia ke kumukūʻai pulp ma kahi o 5,208 yuan/ton i ka makahiki 2023, ua manaʻo ʻia ka piʻi nui ʻana o ka huina kālā o nā ʻoihana pepa hale ʻekolu, a ʻo kā lākou hana hoʻi e hoʻomaka i kahi hoʻohuli.
Ua wānana ʻo CITIC Securities i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai pulp mai 2019 a 2020, ʻo nā huaʻōlelo waho o ka pulp softwood/hardwood pulp e like me ka US $570/450/ton. Mai 2019 a 2020 a me ka hapa mua o 2021, Vinda International'ʻO ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā he 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, ʻo ka uku panee net o Zhongshun Jierou he 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% kēlā me kēia, a ʻo ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana ʻo Hengan International he 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
I ka hapaha ʻehā o 2022, ʻo ka ʻupena waiwai o Vinda International a me Zhongshun Jierou he 0.4% a me 3.1%. I ka hapa mua o 2022, ʻo ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana kāwele pepa a Hengan International he -2.6%. E kālele ana nā ʻoihana i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i ka loaʻa kālā, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻokele ʻia nā hana hoʻolaha kūʻai i loko o kekahi ʻano, a paʻa mau nā kumukūʻai terminal..pahu momona o kēlā me kēia mahina
I ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka ʻāina hoʻokūkū (ʻo ka mana hana hou o ka pepa kiko ma 2020/2021 he 1.89/2.33 miliona tons) a me ka hoʻolālā kumukūʻai alakaʻi, wānana ʻo CITIC Securities i ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā o ka pepa kikoo alakaʻi i kēia pōʻai o ke kumukūʻai pulp. manaʻo ʻia e hoʻihoʻi ka pōʻai i 8% -10% %.
I kēia manawa, ua komo nā kumukūʻai pulp i kahi pōʻai i lalo. Ma lalo o kēia kāʻei kua, manaʻo ʻia nā hui pepa hale e hoʻomaka i kahi hoʻohuli hana.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mei-15-2023
