Daga matsayin ci gaba na ƙwararrun marufi na Turai don ganin yanayin masana'antar kwali a cikin 2023
A wannan shekara, ’yan kasuwan kwali na Turai sun ci gaba da samun riba mai yawa duk da tabarbarewar yanayin, amma har yaushe nasararsu za ta kasance? Gabaɗaya, 2022 zai zama shekara mai wahala ga manyan gwanayen kwali. Tare da hauhawar farashin makamashi da farashin aiki, manyan kamfanonin Turai da suka hada da Schmofi Kappa Group da Desma Group suma suna kokawa kan farashin takarda.
A cewar manazarta a Jeffries, tun daga shekarar 2020, farashin akwatunan da aka sake sarrafa, wani muhimmin bangare na samar da takarda, ya kusan rubanya a Turai. A madadin, farashin katakon budurwar da aka yi kai tsaye daga katako maimakon katun da aka sake fa'ida ya bi irin wannan yanayin. A lokaci guda kuma, masu amfani da tsadar kayayyaki suna rage kashe kuɗin da suke kashewa a kan layi, wanda hakan ke rage buƙatar kwali.
Kwanakin daukaka da sabuwar annobar kambi ta kawo, kamar umarni da ke gudana da cikakken iko, karancin katun, da hauhawar farashin hannun jari na manyan gwanaye…duk wannan ya kare. Duk da haka, duk da haka, waɗannan kamfanoni suna yin mafi kyau fiye da kowane lokaci. Kwanan nan Smurfi Kappa ya ba da rahoton hauhawar kashi 43% na abin da aka samu kafin riba, haraji, raguwar darajar kuɗi da amortization daga watan Janairu zuwa ƙarshen Satumba, yayin da kuɗin shiga aiki ya karu da kashi uku. Wannan yana nufin kudaden shigarta na 2022 da ribar tsabar kudi sun riga sun zarce matakan da aka riga aka samu, duk da kasancewar kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na hanyar zuwa ƙarshen 2022.
A halin da ake ciki, Desma, babban kamfani na Burtaniya mai lamba ɗaya, ya haɓaka hasashenta na shekara zuwa 30 ga Afrilu 2023, yana mai cewa daidaita ribar aiki na rabin farko ya kamata ya zama aƙalla fam miliyan 400, idan aka kwatanta da 2019. Fam miliyan 351. Wani katafaren kamfanin hada kaya, Mondi, ya kara karfin gibin da ke gabansa da kashi 3 cikin dari, fiye da ninka ribar da yake samu a farkon rabin shekarar, duk da matsalolin da ba a warware su ba a cikin kasuwancinsa na Rasha mai sarkakiya.
Sabunta ciniki na Desma na Oktoba ba ya da yawa kan cikakkun bayanai, amma an ambaci "ƙadan kadan don kwalayen kwalaye masu kamanni". Hakanan, haɓakar Smurf Kappa mai ƙarfi ba shine sakamakon siyar da ƙarin akwatuna ba - tallace-tallacen akwatunan kwalayensa sun daidaita a cikin watanni tara na farkon 2022 har ma ya faɗi da 3% a cikin kwata na uku. Sabanin haka, wadannan ’yan kato da gora suna kara samun ribar kamfanoni ta hanyar kara farashin kayayyakin.
Bugu da ƙari, ƙimar ciniki ba ze inganta ba. A cikin kiran samun kuɗin shiga na wannan watan, Smurfi Kappa Shugaba Tony Smurphy ya ce: “Ƙididdigar ciniki a cikin kwata na huɗu ya yi kama da abin da muka gani a cikin kwata na uku. Daukewa. Tabbas, ina tsammanin wasu kasuwanni kamar Burtaniya da Jamus sun kasance ba su da kyau a cikin watanni biyu ko uku da suka gabata. "
Wannan yana haifar da tambaya: menene zai faru da masana'antar akwatin kwalliya a cikin 2023? Idan kasuwa da buƙatun mabukaci na maruƙan corrugated sun fara tashi, shin masana'antun sarrafa kayan kwalliya za su iya ci gaba da haɓaka farashin don samun riba mai yawa? Manazarta sun ji daɗin sabuntawar SmurfKappa idan aka yi la'akari da ƙayyadaddun bayanan macro da raunin kwali da aka ruwaito a cikin gida. A sa'i daya kuma, Smurfi Kappa ya jaddada cewa kungiyar tana da "kwatankwacin kwatance sosai da bara, matakin da muka dauka ba zai dorewa ba".
Duk da haka, masu zuba jari suna da shakku sosai. Hannun jarin Smurfi Kappa ya ragu da kashi 25% fiye da yadda ake fama da cutar, kuma na Desmar ya ragu da kashi 31%. Wanene ya dace? Nasara ba wai kawai ta dogara da katun da tallace-tallacen allo ba. Manazarta a Jefferies sun yi hasashen cewa farashin kwantenan da aka sake sarrafa zai ragu idan aka yi la’akari da karancin bukatu na macro, amma kuma sun jaddada cewa sharar takarda da kuma farashin makamashi ma suna faduwa, domin hakan na nufin cewa farashin kayayyakin da ake sayar da kayan yana raguwa.
“Abin da sau da yawa ake mantawa da shi, a ra’ayinmu, shi ne, ƙananan farashi na iya zama babban haɓaka ga samun kuɗi kuma a ƙarshe, ga masu kera kwalin kwalin, fa'idar ajiyar kuɗi za ta kasance a cikin asarar duk wani yuwuwar farashin ƙaramin akwatin. An nuna a baya cewa wannan ya fi tsayi a kan hanya (lagin watanni 3-6). Gabaɗaya, iskar kuɗaɗen shiga daga ƙananan farashi ana samun ɓarna kaɗan ta hanyar iskar kuɗaɗe daga kudaden shiga." manazarci a Jeffries Say.
A lokaci guda, tambayar bukatun kanta ba cikakke ba ce. Ko da yake kasuwancin e-commerce da raguwar raguwar sun haifar da wasu barazana ga ayyukan kamfanoni masu fakiti, mafi yawan kaso na tallace-tallace na waɗannan ƙungiyoyin galibi yana cikin wasu kasuwancin. A Desma, kusan kashi 80% na kudaden shiga suna zuwa ne daga kayan masarufi masu saurin tafiya (FMCG), waɗanda galibi samfuran da ake siyarwa a manyan kantuna, kuma kusan kashi 70% na fakitin kwali na Smurfi Kappa ana bayarwa ga abokan cinikin FMCG. Wannan yakamata ya tabbatar da juriya yayin da kasuwar ƙarshen ke haɓaka, kuma Desma ta lura da haɓaka mai kyau a cikin yankuna kamar maye gurbin filastik.
Don haka yayin da buƙatun ya canza, da wuya ya faɗi ƙasa da wani matsayi - musamman idan aka yi la'akari da dawowar abokan cinikin masana'antu da cutar ta COVID-19 ta yi fama da shi. Wannan yana samun goyan bayan sakamakon kwanan nan daga MacFarlane (MACF), wanda ya lura da haɓakar 14% a cikin kudaden shiga a cikin watanni shida na farkon 2022 azaman farfadowa a cikin jirgin sama, injiniyanci da abokan cinikin baƙi fiye da rage raguwar siyayya ta kan layi.
Masu fakitin tarkace suma suna amfani da cutar don inganta ma'auni. Smurfi Kappa Shugaba Tony Smurphy ya jaddada cewa tsarin babban kamfani nasa yana "a cikin mafi kyawun matsayi da muka taba gani" a tarihin mu, tare da bashi / abin da aka samu kafin amortization da yawa kasa da sau 1.4. Shugaban zartarwa na Desmar, Myles Roberts, ya bayyana hakan a watan Satumba, yana mai cewa bashin da kungiyarsa ta samu kafin rabon amortization ya ragu zuwa sau 1.6, "daya daga cikin mafi karancin rabon da muka gani cikin shekaru da yawa".
Duk wannan yana ƙarawa zuwa ma'ana wasu manazarta sun yi imanin cewa kasuwa tana da ƙarfi sosai, musamman game da fakitin FTSE 100, farashin kusan kashi 20% ƙasa da ƙididdige ƙididdiga na samun kuɗi kafin amortization. Haƙiƙa ƙimar su tana da kyau sosai, tare da kasuwancin Desma a ƙimar P/E na gaba na kawai 8.7 akan matsakaicin shekaru biyar na 11.1, da ƙimar P/E na gaba na Schmurf Kappa na 10.4 tare da matsakaicin shekaru biyar na 12.3. Yawancin zai dogara ne akan ikon kamfanin don shawo kan masu zuba jari cewa za su iya ci gaba da mamaki a cikin 2023.
Lokacin aikawa: Dec-13-2022
