Kwatanta rahoton kuɗi na manyan manyan ƴan jaridun gida guda uku: Shin canjin aiki a cikin 2023 yana zuwa?
Jagora: A halin yanzu, farashin ɓangaren itacen ya shiga cikin sake zagayowar ƙasa, kuma ana sa ran za a inganta raguwar riba da raguwar ayyukan da aka samu ta hanyar tsadar da ta gabata.
Zhongshun Jierou zai samu kudin shiga na aiki da ya kai yuan biliyan 8.57 a shekarar 2022, raguwar kashi 6.34% a duk shekara; Ribar da aka samu ga masu hannun jarin kamfanonin da aka lissafa ta kai kusan yuan miliyan 350, raguwar duk shekara da kashi 39.77%.
Vinda International za ta gane samun kudin shiga na dalar Amurka biliyan 19.418 a cikin 2022, karuwar shekara-shekara na 3.97%; ribar da aka danganta ga iyayen kamfanin na HK $ 706 miliyan, raguwar shekara-shekara na 56.91%.
Dangane da dalilan da suka haifar da raguwar ayyukan, Vinda International ta ce baya ga tasirin annobar a shekarar 2022, ci gaba da hauhawar farashin albarkatun kasa zai yi mummunan tasiri ga ayyukan kamfanin.
Hengan International za ta samu kudaden shiga da ya kai yuan biliyan 22.616 a shekarar 2022, wanda ya karu da kashi 8.8% a duk shekara; Ribar da aka danganta ga masu hannun jarin kamfanin za ta kai yuan biliyan 1.925, raguwar kashi 41.2 cikin dari a duk shekara.
akwatin kuki
Daga yanayin rabon kudaden shiga, kasuwancin tawul ɗin takarda koyaushe shine ainihin kasuwancin Hengan International. A cikin 2022, wannan kasuwancin na Hengan International zai yi kyau da gaske. A shekarar 2022, kudaden shiga na tallace-tallace na kasuwancin tawul na Hengan International zai karu da kusan kashi 24.4% zuwa yuan biliyan 12.248, wanda ya kai kusan kashi 54.16% na yawan kudaden shigar kungiyar; ya kai Yuan biliyan 9.842 a daidai wannan lokacin a bara, wanda ya kai kashi 47.34%.
Yin la'akari da rahotannin shekara-shekara na 2022 da kamfanonin takarda guda uku suka bayyana, raguwar aikin ya samo asali ne saboda hauhawar farashin albarkatun ƙasa.
Bayanai na saka idanu na SunSirs sun nuna cewa tun daga shekarar 2022, farashin tabo na ɓangaren litattafan almara na itace mai laushi da ɓangaren litattafan almara, kayan albarkatun ƙasa don ɓangaren litattafan almara, sun tashi sama. Matsakaicin farashin kasuwa na ɓangaren litattafan almara a Shandong ya taɓa tashi zuwa yuan/ton 7750, kuma ɓangaren litattafan almara ya taɓa tashi zuwa yuan / ton 6700.
Karkashin matsin lamba na hauhawar farashin albarkatun kasa, ayyukan manyan kamfanonin takarda suma sun ragu, kuma har yanzu masana'antar na fuskantar kalubale masu yawa.
01. Tashin farashin yana da wahala don daidaita hauhawar kayan albarkatun ƙasa
Raw kayan da aka yi amfani da su wajen samar da takarda na nama sun haɗa da ɓangaren litattafan almara, abubuwan da ke haɗa sinadarai da kayan marufi. Daga cikin su, ɓangaren litattafan almara yana da kashi 50% -70% na farashin samarwa, kuma masana'antar masana'antar ɓangaren litattafan almara ita ce babbar masana'anta kuma mafi mahimmancin masana'antar takarda ta gida. A matsayinsa na ɗanyen kayan masarufi na ƙasa da ƙasa, farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara yana da matukar tasiri ga zagayowar tattalin arzikin duniya, kuma canjin farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara yana shafar babban matakin ribar samfuran takarda na gida.
Tun daga Nuwamba 2020, farashin ɓangarorin ya ci gaba da hauhawa. A karshen shekarar 2021, farashin gwangwani ya tashi a kan yuan 5,500-6,000, kuma a karshen shekarar 2022, ya haura zuwa yuan 7,400-7,800.
Domin tinkarar hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, tun daga watan Disamba na 2020, kamfanonin takarda gida a duk faɗin ƙasar sun fara haɓaka farashin daya bayan ɗaya. Ya zuwa ranar 31 ga Disamba, 2020, a cikin rabin na biyu na 2020, yawan adadin da aka gama ya karu ya kai yuan / ton 800-1,000, kuma farashin tsohon masana'antar ya tashi daga mafi ƙasƙanci na 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton zuwa kusan. 7,000 yuan/ton. , Xinxiangyin tsohon masana'anta farashin ya kai 12,500 yuan / ton.
A farkon Afrilu 2021, kamfanoni irin su Zhongshun Cleanroom da Vinda International sun ci gaba da haɓaka farashi.
kwalin cakulan
Zhongshun Jierou ya bayyana a cikin wasikar karin farashin a wancan lokacin cewa, farashin danyen kaya ya ci gaba da hauhawa, kuma farashin kayayyakin da kamfanin ke samarwa da kuma farashin gudanar da aiki ya ci gaba da karuwa. Har ila yau, Vinda International (Beijing) ta bayyana cewa, sakamakon ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, farashin kayayyaki ya karu sosai, kuma tana shirin daidaita farashin wasu kayayyaki na Vinda daga ranar 1 ga Afrilu.
Bayan haka, a cikin rubu'in farko na shekarar 2022, Zhongshun Jierou ya sake yin karin farashin kayayyaki, kuma ya ci gaba a matakai. Ya zuwa kashi uku na uku na shekarar 2022, Zhongshun Jierou ya kara farashin mafi yawan kayayyakin sa.
Duk da haka, ci gaba da haɓaka farashin kamfanonin takarda bai haifar da ƙaruwa mai yawa a cikin ayyukan kamfanin ba. Akasin haka, aikin kamfanin ya ragu saboda hauhawar farashin.
kek akwatin kuki
Daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022, kudaden shiga na Zhongshun Jierou zai kai Yuan biliyan 7.824, da yuan biliyan 9.15, da yuan biliyan 8.57, tare da samun ribar yuan miliyan 906, da yuan miliyan 581, da yuan miliyan 349, kuma za a samu babban riba 4.3. % da yuan biliyan 3.592 bi da bi. %, 31.96%, da net ɗin ribar sun kasance 11.58%, 6.35%, da 4.07%, bi da bi.
Kudaden shiga na Vinda International daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022 zai kai yuan biliyan 13.897, da yuan biliyan 15.269, da yuan biliyan 17.345, tare da ribar yuan biliyan 1.578, yuan biliyan 1.34, da yuan miliyan 631. 28.24%, kuma yawan ribar net ɗin sun kasance 11.35%, 8.77%, da 3.64%, bi da bi.
Daga shekarar 2020 zuwa 2022, kudaden shiga na Hengan International zai kai yuan biliyan 22.374, da yuan biliyan 20.79, da yuan biliyan 22.616, kuma kasuwancin nama zai kai kashi 46.41%, 47.34%, da 54.16% bi da bi; Ribar da aka samu za ta kai yuan biliyan 4.608 da yuan biliyan 3.29, yuan biliyan 1.949; Jimillar ribar da aka samu ta kasance 42.26%, 37.38%, da 34% bi da bi, kuma ribar da aka samu ta kasance 20.6%, 15.83%, da 8.62%.
A cikin shekaru uku da suka gabata, duk da cewa manyan kamfanoni uku na gida sun ci gaba da kara farashin, amma har yanzu yana da wahala a rage tsadar farashin, kuma ayyukan kamfanin da ribar da ake samu na ci gaba da raguwa.
akwatin zaki na wata-wata
02. Matsayin jujjuyawar aikin na iya zuwa nan da nan
A ranar 19 ga watan Afrilu, Zhongshun Jierou ya fitar da rahotonsa na farko na kwata-kwata na shekarar 2023. Sanarwar ta nuna cewa, a rubu'in farko na shekarar 2023, yawan kudin da kamfanin ya samu ya kai Yuan biliyan 2.061, wanda ya karu da kashi 9.35% a duk shekara; Ribar da aka samu ga masu hannun jarin kamfanonin da aka lissafa ta kai yuan miliyan 89.44, raguwar duk shekara da kashi 32.93%.
Daga hangen farkon kwata na 2023, ayyukan kamfanin bai sake komawa ba.
Koyaya, yin hukunci daga yanayin farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara, akwai alamun fata. Bisa kididdigar da ake ci gaba da samu na babban karfin da ake amfani da shi, yawan karfin da ake amfani da shi ya ci gaba da tashi daga yuan/ton 4252 a ranar 3 ga Fabrairu, 2020 zuwa yuan / ton 7652 a ranar 1 ga Maris, 2022. Bayan haka, ya dan daidaita. , amma ya kasance a kusan 6700 yuan/ton. A ranar 12 ga Disamba, 2022, babban karfin da ake amfani da shi ya ci gaba da karuwa zuwa yuan/ton 7452, sannan ya ci gaba da raguwa. Ya zuwa ranar 23 ga Afrilu, 2023, babban karfin da ake amfani da shi ya ci gaba da kasancewa yuan/ton 5208, wanda ya ragu da kashi 30.11% daga babban matsayi na baya.
Idan an kiyaye farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara a wannan matakin a cikin 2023, zai kasance kusan daidai da rabin farkon 2019.
A farkon rabin shekarar 2019, yawan ribar Zhongshun Jierou ya kai kashi 36.69%, kuma yawan ribar da aka samu ya kai kashi 8.66%; Babban riba na Vinda International ya kasance 27.38%, kuma yawan ribar da aka samu ya kasance 4.35%; Babban riba na Hengan International ya kasance 37.04%, kuma yawan ribar da aka samu ya kasance 17.67%. Daga wannan ra'ayi, idan aka kiyaye farashin litattafan almara a kusan yuan 5,208 a shekarar 2023, ana sa ran yawan ribar ribar manyan kamfanonin takardar gida guda uku zai karu sosai, kuma aikinsu zai haifar da koma baya.
CITIC Securities yana annabta cewa a cikin koma baya na farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara daga 2019 zuwa 2020, ambaton waje na ɓangaren litattafan almara/hardwood zai yi ƙasa da dalar Amurka $570/450/ton. Daga 2019 zuwa 2020 da rabin farko na 2021, Vinda International's net ribar gefe zai zama 7.1%, 11.4%, 10.6%, da net riba kudi na Zhongshun Jierou ne 9.1%, 11.6%, 9.6% bi da bi, da kuma aiki riba kudi na Hengan International nama kasuwanci ne 7.3%, 10.0%, 8.9%.
A cikin kwata na hudu na shekarar 2022, ribar riba ta Vinda International da Zhongshun Jierou za su kasance 0.4% da 3.1% bi da bi. A farkon rabin 2022, ribar aiki na kasuwancin tawul ɗin takarda na Hengan International zai kasance -2.6%. Kamfanoni za su mai da hankali kan maido da riba, ana sa ran za a sarrafa ƙoƙarin tallan tallace-tallace a cikin wani kewayon, kuma farashin tashoshi yana da inganci..akwatin zaki na wata-wata
Yin la'akari da yanayin ƙasa mai fa'ida (sabon ƙarfin samar da takarda na nama a cikin 2020/2021 shine tan miliyan 1.89 / 2.33) da dabarun farashi, CITIC Securities yana annabta cewa ƙimar ribar babbar takarda a cikin wannan zagaye na farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara. Ana sa ran sake zagayowar zai dawo zuwa 8% -10% %.
A halin yanzu, farashin ɓangaren litattafan almara sun shiga zagaye na ƙasa. A ƙarƙashin wannan bangon, ana sa ran kamfanonin takarda na gida za su haifar da jujjuyawar aiki.
Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-15-2023
